Michigan Election Polls & Betting Odds: Biden Has Big Edge Over Trump in Polls

Michigan Election Polls & Betting Odds: Biden Has Big Edge Over Trump in Polls article feature image
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Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden.

Michigan Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Joe Biden
-500
76.9%
Donald Trump
+300
23.1%

Odds as of Oct. 16 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +300 odds mean a $100 bet would net $300 if he wins Michigan. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Michigan Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
50.6%
Donald Trump
42.8%

538 Michigan Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
91%
Donald Trump
9%

Polling averages and projections as of Oct. 16 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Michigan Presidential Race Updates

Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 76.9% implied probability of winning Michigan compared to Donald Trump’s 23.1% implied probability.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which simulates the election 40,000 times, has Biden winning 91 out of every 100 times compared to Trump’s 9. The site’s average of polls reflect that Biden has a sizable advantage, with the former Vice President at 50.6% compared to Trump’s 42.8%.


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Michigan has 16 of the 538 total electoral votes in the country.

President Trump won Michigan over Hillary Clinton in 2016, which was seen as a big upset. Trump brought in 47.3% of the vote, while Clinton got 47.0%. Barack Obama won Michigan by 9.5% in 2012.

Prior to Trump’s win in 2016, Michigan had voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1988, when George H.W. Bush won the state over Michael Dukakis.