English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Everton vs. Sheffield United (Monday, July 20)
Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Seamus Coleman
- Everton have taken just two points from their last four matches and have been one of the worst teams since the Premier League restarted. That's part of the reason they're an underdog against Sheffield on Monday afternoon.
- Michael Leboff thinks the line is a little out of whack but knows it's tough to back an Everton side in such poor form.
- Get his full preview for Everton vs. Sheffield United below.
EPL: Everton at Sheffield United Odds
|Everton odds||+255 [BET NOW]|
|Sheffield United Odds||+115 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+230 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2 (-148/+120) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Monday, 1 p.m. ET|
If you just took the rosters for Everton and Sheffield United at face value, you’d probably be a bit surprised by these odds. Everton are no doubt the more talented team, but they are in some uninspiring form at the moment.
The Toffees have taken just two points from their last four matches and needed a late equalizer to save face at home against relegation-threatened Aston Villa on Thursday.
Despite a few decent results, including a 0-0 draw with Liverpool and a 2-1 win over Leicester City, Everton have been one of the worst teams during Project Restart. According to Understat, Everton have accrued just 6.03 expected points in their last seven matches, putting them on par with Crystal Palace and just ahead of Norwich City in that span.
Everton’s lifeless performances have them averaging a measly 0.68 expected goals for per match since the hiatus, the second-worst mark in the Premier League.
While Everton have looked disinterested in playing out a string of meaningless matches, Sheffield United still have an outside chance at qualifying for European Football for the first time ever, so you’d expect the Blades to be engaged on Monday.
Not only do Sheffield United have the presumed motivational edge, they also are in much better form than Everton. While the Toffees have an average xG differential of -1.1 over their last five matches, the Blades are basically breaking even at -0.11 over a really tough stretch that included wins over Tottenham, Chelsea and Wolves before a deflating, 2-0 loss to Leicester.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
|Stats Since July 1||Everton (5 GP)||Sheffield United (5 GP)|
|Goals for per game||0.8||1.6|
|Expected goals for per game||0.7||1.27|
|Goals against per game||1.4||0.8|
|Expected goals against per game||1.8||1.38|
|Total goals per game||2.2||2.4|
|Total expected goals per game||2.5||2.65|
Everything seems to be pointing in Sheffield United’s direction on Monday, but the number on Everton just seems too long. If you’re solely interested in betting the form side, Sheffield United are definitely your team. But, if you’re doing that, you need to be OK with paying a premium for the less talented team on Monday.
Chris Wilder’s Blades are certainly more than capable of winning this match and the odds tell you that a Sheffield United win is the most likely outcome at Bramall Lane, but I’m having a tough time ignoring this as a terrific buy-low spot on a talented-but-underwhelming Everton side.
That being said, this is a particularly cumbersome match to handicap. Everton are the “better” team, but they have nothing to play for and are in bad form, while Sheffield United are in the midst of a magical season, have a lot to play for and are on a bit of a roll over the last three weeks, despite their wobble last time out.
It’s Everton or pass for me at this price, but it’s really easy to see why bettors will likely flock to Sheffield United on Monday.