Champions League Title Odds Movement

Champions League Title Odds Movement article feature image

With the second legs of the Round of 16 matchups taking place over the next couple weeks, we’ve examined at how title odds have changed for each club and if any are worth betting on.

The 2017-18 Champions League Final will take place at NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium in Kiev, Ukraine on May 26.

Manchester City (+345)

Manchester City were massive -1200 favorites to advance past Basel in their Round of 16 matchup and were -270 to win at Basel in the opening leg. The Citizens had absolutely no problem in the opening leg and bring a 4-0 lead into the second leg at home. Their odds to win the Champions League title have improved slightly from +350 to +345 following the win, and they’re in no danger of being upset before the quarterfinals. At that point, it’s all about who they randomly draw, and a difficult matchup could actually see their odds get worse from +345.

Bettors who were high on City before the tourney were able to grab them at +1400 odds in June, and were still available at +880 early in the group stage. However, they reached a low of +310 in early December, which would have been the worst time to bet them.

Current odds to advance from Round of 16:  Off Board
Won 4-0 at Basel in opening leg

Barcelona (+490)

I’ve only made one futures wager on the Champions League title winner, and that was Barcelona at +650 odds back in mid-September. Despite a difficult Round of 16 matchup with Chelsea, Barcelona were pegged as -300 favorites to advance, and they’re in great position now at -500 after a 1-1 finish at Stamford Bridge in the opening leg. That draw was almost as good as a victory, and it improved their title odds from +590 to +490.

Current odds to advance from Round of 16: -500
Drew 1-1 at Chelsea in opening leg

Bayern Munich (+500)

Bayern Munich were “only” -800 to advance from the Round of 16, and they demolished Besiktas 5-0 in the opening leg at home. If you parlayed Bayern with Man City to advance, you’re likely already counting your winnings since neither are in danger. As for Bayern’s title odds, they’ve improved from +550 to +500 and were as high as +800 prior to the Round of 16.

Current odds to advance from Round of 16: Off Board
Won 5-0 vs. Besiktas in opening leg

Real Madrid (+575)

Real Madrid saw their title odds improve from +800 to +575 following a 3-1 home victory over PSG in the opening leg, and they’re now -300 to advance to the quarterfinals. Although I didn’t bet Real Madrid to win the Champions League, I wouldn’t blame anyone who has– they won’t have the La Liga title to worry about late in the season so they can primarily focus on this tournament.

Current odds to advance from Round of 16: -300
Won 3-1 vs. PSG in opening leg

PSG (+1000)

PSG were in decent position in the opening leg at Real Madrid, tied 1-1 late in the second half before conceding two goals in a 3-1 loss. It was a poor result for PSG, and their title odds moved from +575 to +1000 following the defeat. To make matters worse, star player Neymar was injured late in their 3-0 blowout league win vs. Marseille on Sunday, and could be a doubt for the second leg vs. Real Madrid. Without him, their odds will be even worse to pull off the comeback and advance to the quarterfinals. If you do like PSG to overcome the first leg deficit, I would wait on the status of Neymar before placing any wagers.

Odds to advance from Round of 16: +250
Lost 3-1 at Real Madrid in opening leg

Liverpool (+1000)

Liverpool was the only surprise for me in the opening leg matches, as they easily beat Porto 5-0 on the road. I thought that the Portuguese side could contend with Jurgen Klopp’s men, but they were clearly outclassed. After being as high as +3500 to win the Champions League back in September, Liverpool have seen their odds come all the way down to +1000. I don’t think they have much of a chance to win it and wouldn’t take them at +1000, but they’re still a dangerous club to watch out for.

Odds to advance from Round of 16: Off Board
Won 5-0 at Porto in opening leg

Tottenham (+1450)

Spurs got a huge result in the opening leg on the road, drawing 2-2 at Juventus. Even more impressive, they found themselves down 2-0 in that match in the first half before clawing back for the result. As I mentioned in the original Round of 16 preview, I thought betting on Spurs to win/draw the opening leg made much more sense than taking them to advance. That proved to be a better option, and Spurs are now -250 favorites to make the quarterfinals. However, similar to Liverpool, I don’t like the +1450 odds to win the title so I’d lay off at this point.

Odds to advance from Round of 16: -250
Drew 2-2 at Juventus in opening leg

Manchester United (+2100)

Man United didn’t get a terrible result in the opening leg, drawing 0-0 at Sevilla. However, their title odds took a big hit, moving from +1400 to +2100. I think this line movement is a bit of an overreaction, especially since they’ll be heavily favored at home to advance to the quarterfinals. At +2100, United’s odds have never been higher this season, so if you like them to win it all, now’s the time to pull the trigger.

Odds to advance from Round of 16: Off Board
Drew 0-0 at Sevilla in opening leg

Juventus (+3000)

The opening home leg was looking so good, up 2-0 in the first half and generating scoring chances…then came a Harry Kane goal for Tottenham, a missed penalty kick by Higuain, and a game-tying goal to finish 2-2. However, I wouldn’t count out Juventus to advance, and they’re +290 to win outright at Tottenham in the second leg (+255 for the draw). I’m waiting to see how these odds move and where the public puts their money, but I’ve absolutely got my eyes on Juventus to win/advance to the quarterfinals. It would be very Spurs-y to blow it at this point. I’d also consider Juventus at +3000 to win the Champions League title.

Odds to advance from Round of 16: +210
Drew 2-2 vs. Tottenham in opening leg

Chelsea (+3500)

Oddsmakers didn’t give Chelsea much of a chance after being randomly drawn against Barcelona in the Round of 16, and despite playing a strong opening leg, haven’t seen their odds get any better. Their title odds moved from +1500 to +3000 after being paired with Barcelona, and have moved from +3300 to +3500 following the opening leg draw. They’re +350 just to advance to the quarterfinals, and will need to pull off something special at Camp Nou.

Odds to advance from Round of 16: +350
Drew 1-1 vs. Barcelona in opening leg

I’ll have previews and value plays for each second leg matchup over the next couple weeks, so be on the lookout for those.

(Cover image is of Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne and Leroy Sane)

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