Premier League Week 24 Picks: Fading Big Favorites
For the first time all season, Manchester City are coming off a loss in the Premier League after a wild 4-3 finish at Liverpool last weekend. Oddsmakers opened Man City at hefty -1015 odds to bounce back and beat Newcastle this weekend but bettors have had other thoughts, tempted by the big potential payout and overpriced line. Once available at +2700 at prominent offshore sportsbook Pinnacle, Newcastle is now +2150 there and listed at only +1750 at Bookmaker. Six of the underdogs this weekend are listed at +500 odds or higher, but are any providing value?
Here’s a look at recent results, betting trends and biggest payouts along with value plays and market analysis for Week 24.
Week 23 Results:
Home 6 of 10 (+3.91 units)
Away 1 of 10 (-7.21 units)
Draw 3 of 10 (+2.82 units)
Road teams finally had a profitable outing in Week 22, but crashed back down in Week 23 with only one victory (West Ham 4-1 at Huddersfield). We should see more than one road win this weekend with so many big favorites on the board.
Home 101 of 230 (-13.96 units)
Away 67 of 230 (-34.94 units)
Draw 62 of 230 (+21.38 units)
On the season, draws are still cruising along while road teams continue to sputter. A Newcastle victory this weekend could quickly change those figures, while the high number of big road favorites could start chipping away.
Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
West Ham (+655) vs. Chelsea in Week 16
Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -10000 (62 points)
Manchester United +4000 (50 points)
Liverpool +6600 (47 points)
Chelsea +8000 (47 points)
Tottenham +12500 (41 points)
Arsenal +25000 (39 points)
Last weekend’s value plays obviously didn’t go as planned starting 0-3 on Saturday, but a thrilling Liverpool victory over Man City at +222 odds salvaged most of the losses. I had also mentioned that the odds on City to finish the season unbeaten (+400) were offering no value with so many difficult fixtures left, and the ‘No’ option has already cashed at -600.
In Week 24, there’s going to be a lot of moneyline and goal-line parlays involving the big favorites like Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham. Surely there will be some square bettors taking a chance on all six of them together, but the payout isn’t that great at +850.
In the opening match of the weekend on Saturday morning, Chelsea travel to Brighton without a couple key pieces in Alvaro Morata and Pedro due to suspension. We’ve already seen some big line movement in this one as Chelsea opened -239 but are now down to -159 despite getting nearly 70% of tickets. When these teams met a few weeks ago Chelsea dominated in a 2-0 win, and I’m anticipating a really strong defensive lineup from Conte’s men on Saturday in the early fixture. They’re missing some playmakers and scorers but wouldn’t be surprised to see Eden Hazard pull off something brilliant on his own. With all that said, I was able to grab Brighton at +700 early in the week but I don’t think there’s any value on them at this point after the line movement. Unless the odds go back up, it’s probably worth laying off, but keep an eye on the draw line movement– it’s currently at +292 and getting just 8% of tickets.
One of the teams the public loves this weekend is Everton, which is hard for me to figure out. Maybe it’s the recent acquisition of Theo Walcott from Arsenal, but bets have poured on the home side with nearly 70% of tickets. Even with all the moneyline support, odds have drifted on Everton from +108 to +120 at Pinnacle, and from +102 to +120 at 5Dimes. West Brom are no slouches despite being toward the bottom of the league, and have a string of solid results since losing at Stoke City. All week I’ve been going back-and-forth between taking the draw and West Brom moneyline, so I’m going the conservative route on West Brom +0.5 goals (-125 juice).
I have to wonder if Burnley are still stinging from blowing a 2-0 lead at Manchester United last month. It was still a solid result to draw 2-2 at Old Trafford but they’ve only grabbed one point in the past three matches. Public bettors have been pretty high on Burnley at home to pull the upset, but odds have moved away from them (+575 to +593). They’re sitting pretty in the standings in 7th place and have been the most profitable team to bet on this season so it makes sense public bettors are flocking to them again. However, I think these teams are trending in opposite directions so I’m not taking the bait on the home side.
Before getting to the last value play of the week, I wanted to mention the line movement on Man City/Newcastle. When odds opened on this match I was surprised to see Newcastle listed so high at +2700 and bettors soon followed. Following City’s loss to Liverpool, odds quickly fell to +2450 and ultimately down to +2150. It’s entirely possible I was one of the bettors suckered in to take Newcastle, but at 25/1 it was worth it. This also stresses the importance of having access to multiple books so you can shop for the best line. Bookmaker still only lists Newcastle at +1742, and at that price I wouldn’t bother touching it.
The match I’m most intrigued by this weekend is Leicester vs. Watford. It features the highest total of the weekend (2.75) that doesn’t involve a big favorite, and we’ve seen sharp money move Leicester from +100 to -120 at Pinnacle. They nearly knocked off Chelsea last weekend and held on for an impressive draw after getting a red card in the second half. There’s a lot of talent in the home side and they’ll be looking for revenge after blowing a 1-0 lead in this matchup just three weeks ago. I’m going with Leicester City -115 to secure a home win.
Most Lopsided Moneyline Tickets Around the Market
74% on West Ham (+106) vs. Bournemouth
68% on Everton (+120) vs. West Brom
Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
Leicester City (+100 to -120) vs. Watford
Brighton (+862 to +560) vs. Chelsea
Newcastle (+2700 to +2150) at Man City
Value Plays (27-30 season record, +29.54 units, 52% ROI):
Leicester City (-115) vs. Watford
West Brom (+0.5 goals) at Everton
In case you missed it: Futures to keep an eye on like Season Point Totals, Relegation Odds, and Top Goalscorer.
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