Premier League Week 31 Betting Preview and Picks
It's a very light Premier League weekend with just four matches on the board due to FA Cup action, but fortunately we have three value plays on:
- West Brom at Bournemouth (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET)
- Crystal Palace at Huddersfield (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET)
- Everton at Stoke City (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET)
Here's a look at the most recent results, season trends, title odds and relegation odds, along with three value plays and market analysis for Week 31.
Last weekend we finally saw road teams win (four of 10 matches) but they were still negative units overall. It was a rare tough week for draws, cashing in only one of 10 matches for -6.97 units.
Bettors backing road teams have consistently been burned since November. In the first 100 matches of the season, road teams were just -4.67 units. In the next 200 matches, road teams were -62.77 units.
Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -100000 (81 points)
Manchester Utd +25000 (65 points)
Liverpool +50000 (60 points)
Tottenham +100000 (61 points)
Chelsea +150000 (56 points)
Relegation Odds via 5Dimes:
West Brom -4000 (20 points)
Stoke City -140 (27 points)
Southampton +190 (28 points)
West Ham +200 (30 points)
Crystal Palace +250 (27 points)
Huddersfield +255 (31 points)
Swansea +400 (30 points)
Still, the only real certainties in the Premier League are that Man City will win the league and West Brom will be relegated. The races to get into the top four, and away from the bottom three, will be the ones to watch. Here's a look at the betting splits for each of the four matchups Saturday along with value plays:
Crystal Palace at Huddersfield (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Huddersfield +193, Crystal Palace +173, Draw +219
This is a big match in the relegation race as Crystal Palace (+250) and Huddersfield (+255) have nearly identical odds to be demoted. This may be a little surprising since Huddersfield are actually four points clear of Crystal Palace, and are at home this weekend against the Eagles. This is clearly a game that oddsmakers think Crystal Palace can win, and public bettors agree — more than 60% of tickets have taken Palace (+173) to grab all three points.
For those who have been following EPL value plays the last couple years, you're probably guessing that I'd be on the draw here. But I actually think there's value on the home side Huddersfield at +193 odds. They're coming off two consecutive shutouts in the Premier League so this is a great "buy-low" opportunity, especially after they couldn't score against 10-men Swansea last weekend in a 0-0 draw. Using our Bet Labs database, EPL teams coming off two straight shutouts in the league have earned more than +38 units with an 11% ROI. I'll gladly take my shot on Huddersfield to bounce back with a big home win this weekend at +193.
Everton at Stoke City (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Stoke City +155, Everton +214, Draw +229
We've seen very similar line movement and public betting patterns in this match as we have for Crystal Palace/Huddersfield, with the public all over the road dog. Since opening, Everton have attracted 67% of tickets which has moved their odds from +234 to +214. This is surprising to observe since Everton have been the second-worst road team in the EPL this season. Bettors just can't get behind Stoke City, who are now -140 favorites to be relegated, but they actually haven't been playing poorly. They drew three consecutive league matches before losing 2-0 at home to Man City, so it's not like they keep losing matches like West Brom have. They've also been shutout in two consecutive league matches, so here's another great "buy-low" situation on the home side. A win for Stoke City would put them on 30 points and lift them out of the relegation zone, and that's where I'm putting my money at +155 odds.
West Brom at Bournemouth (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Bournemouth -115, West Brom +390, Draw +255
Will West Brom win another match before the end of the season? They've been stuck on 20 points and in the cellar of the Premier League table, so their motivation must be questioned at this point. Things couldn't possibly get worse, could they? Public bettors have been avoiding West Brom as they've dropped six straight league matches including last week's 4-1 home loss to Leicester City. On the other hand, bettors have been pouring in on Bournemouth to win at home with the Cherries receiving more than 70% of the action. The lopsided ticket/money count has forced oddsmakers to move the line from Bournemouth +110 to -115, and from West Brom +278 to +390. Guess which side I'm not betting?
Now that West Brom are nearly 4-1 on the moneyline, that's where I'm finding value in this match. It's a tough bet to make considering that West Brom have scored just seven goals in 15 road games this season, but sometimes the ugly bets are the right bets. I also think it will actually help West Brom to play on the road rather than at home where fans may have given up by now. If they can get a win this weekend on the road, they have two more winnable games following at home: vs. Burnley and vs. Swansea. Obviously it's a long shot for them to stay in the Premier League, but I expect them to grab some points over the next few weeks.
Value Plays (33-44 season record, +24.30 units), All plays risk 1 unit
Huddersfield (+193) vs. Crystal Palace
Stoke City (+155) vs. Everton
West Brom (+375) at Bournemouth
Cover photo is Everton's Wayne Rooney
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