Premier League Week 32 Betting Preview and Picks

Premier League Week 32 Betting Preview and Picks article feature image

The Premier League is back in action after another international break, with the marquee matchup taking place on Sunday (11 a.m. ET) between Chelsea and Tottenham. There are also plenty of relegation battles on Saturday afternoon involving teams lower down the table. We’ve previewed the entire weekend to come and picked out value plays in the following matches:

  • Burnley at West Brom (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on PLP)
  • Huddersfield at Newcastle (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on PLP)
  • Leicester City at Brighton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on PLP)
  • Southampton at West Ham (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on CNBC)
  • Tottenham at Chelsea (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET on NBCSN)

 

Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, title odds and relegation odds, along with value plays and betting market analysis for Week 32.

Due to FA Cup action, there were only four matches in Week 31; home and away teams each won two.

Road teams have obviously struggled all season, but were finally in the green in Week 31.

Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -100000 (81 points)
Manchester Utd +25000 (65 points)
Liverpool +50000 (63 points)
Tottenham +75000 (61 points)

Relegation Odds via 5Dimes:
West Brom -10000 (20 points)
Stoke City -275 (27 points)
Huddersfield +150 (31 points)
Southampton +200 (28 points)
West Ham +250 (30 points)
Swansea +450 (31 points)
Crystal Palace +700 (30 points)

Man City are still cruising to the EPL title, while West Brom are bound to be relegated to the English Championship division. Which two teams will join them though? With six teams within four points of the danger zone, every single point counts down the stretch.

Before getting to the previews and value plays, here’s a look at the most lopsided bets of the weekend and their corresponding line movement.

(All odds via 5Dimes at time of publication. All betting %’s are offshore market consensus)

Burnley at West Brom (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: West Brom +168, Burnley +211, Draw +207

Premier League value plays have hit a rut over the last couple of months, but I’m going back to the well to get back on track. Burnley consistently see totals of two goals in their matches, and I’m still not sure how they manage to score goals, but they keep chugging along. It’s up to seventh place in the table with 43 points, only five behind Arsenal for sixth, but they have Leicester City and Everton breathing down their neck (each three points back). They’re clearly safe from relegation, but will be playing for that coveted sixth-place finish.

West Brom, on the other hand, have been awful and remain dead last in the league with just 20 points. I’ve made the mistake of betting on them to win/draw a few times since the start of 2018, which has clearly not worked out. In their most recent outing, they even held a 1-0 lead on the road before losing, 2-1, to Bournemouth. I couldn’t possibly back them to get a result this weekend, could I?

As much as it pains me to do it, there’s value on the draw at +207 odds. With such a low total of two goals and three tight moneylines (+168, +211, +207), there’s a great chance this match ends 1-1. There’s also been a little bit of reverse-line movement on the draw, which sat at +215 early Friday morning, so grab the best price while you can.

Huddersfield at Newcastle (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Newcastle -121, Huddersfield +413, Draw +260

Would anyone bet on Huddersfield after it was shut out in three consecutive Premier League matches? Well, contrarian bettors would and already have. According to our Bet Labs database, EPL teams have been highly profitable after suffering three straight shutouts, going 7-8 for +15.09 units this season. Remarkably, Huddersfield have fit this mold twice already this season, winning both matches (+214 vs. Bournemouth, +875 vs. Manchester United). This time will be a little different on the road at Newcastle, but I believe in Huddersfield to bounce back again.

I’m also not convinced Newcastle is worthy of laying -121 odds at home, no matter how poorly Huddersfield have played. Sharp bettors seem to agree —Huddersfield have already dropped from +455 to +415 as of Friday morning. Public bettors are going the other way and backing the home side Newcastle, whose odds have barely budged since opening. Bookmakers and the market don’t seem too worried about public Newcastle money, but are moving odds due to Huddersfield liability. I personally took Huddersfield at +440 odds to win. You can shop around the market for similar odds.

 

Leicester City at Brighton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds:  Brighton +195, Leicester +167, Draw +226

Despite the line moving toward Leicester City, I think this has all the makings of a draw. Brighton have been stellar at home, with three straight league wins there, while Leicester City haven’t been great on the road. Leicester City have also been leaky defensively, conceding goals in six straight league matches. They definitely have more talent overall, but this is an important game for both teams — Brighton are fighting to stay in the EPL, while Leicester are aiming for a sixth- or seventh-place finish. We’re also seeing another low total of 2/2.25, which means the teams could be tight. At +226, the value on the draw is simply too hard to pass up.

Southampton at West Ham (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds:  West Ham +188, Southampton +175, Draw +223

I’d love to pick a winner here, but I’m scared off by the fact that the public is all over the road side. Southampton also lead the league in draws this season with 13, so they’re used to playing these types of games. West Ham have seen their odds drift from +175 to +188, and I simply can’t trust the home side to win.

Both teams need points desperately — West Ham are barely safe from the relegation zone with 30 points and Southampton are stuck with 28. This really is a match that Southampton need to win, but they’ve only won twice on the road all season. I could see one of these squads blowing a late lead, resulting in a draw, so that’s what I’m betting at +223.

Tottenham at Chelsea (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Chelsea +139, Tottenham +228, Draw +236

Chelsea are short home “favorites” at +139 odds, but it’s hard to bet this match without knowing the status of Tottenham striker Harry Kane. He’ll be assessed closer to game time, but has a chance to play. The market has taken notice of his availability — Tottenham were offered at +250 when Kane was doubtful, but have since dropped to +228 on news that he might play.

With a win, Chelsea would move within two points of Tottenham for fourth place. Conversely, a loss would put them eight points back and seemingly out of reach. I’m leaning toward the draw at +236 odds (big surprise, right?), but without knowing Kane’s status, I’m laying off.

Value Plays (33-47 season record, +21.30 units), All plays risk 1 unit
West Brom/Burnley Draw +207
Huddersfield +440 at Newcastle
Leicester City/Brighton Draw +226
Southampton/West Ham Draw +223

You can also follow me on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) for all the latest soccer news and updates.

 

Cover photo features Tottenham’s Dele Alli and Chelsea’s David Luiz and N’Golo Kanté