Premier League Week 33 Betting Preview and Value Picks

This weekend's Premier League action is highlighted by the Manchester Derby (Saturday 12:30 p.m. ET) between the top two teams in the league, and Manchester City can clinch the title with a home win vs. Manchester United. We've broken down the entire betting market for that match and four others to find the best value bets, including:

• • Liverpool at Everton (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
  • Newcastle at Leicester City (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on PLP)
  • Tottenham at Stoke City (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on PLP)
  • Burnley at Watford (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on PLP)
  • Manchester United at Manchester City (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC)

Recent Results and Season Trends

Draws had been consistently profitable throughout the year, but the last couple of weeks have been brutal, which hasn't helped our value plays. Road teams finally had a winning week, but have still been in the red for the year. Will road teams continue their surge through the end of the season?

Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -100000 (84 points)
Manchester Utd +25000 (68 points)
Liverpool +75000 (66 points)
Tottenham +150000 (64 points)

Relegation Odds via 5Dimes:
West Brom -50000 (20 points)
Stoke City -335 (27 points)
Huddersfield +110 (31 points)
Southampton +135 (28 points)
Swansea +600 (31 points)
Crystal Palace +725 (30 points)
West Ham +1100 (33 points)
Brighton +1600 (34 points)

Before getting to the previews and value plays, here's a look at the most lopsided bets of the weekend and their corresponding line movement:

(All odds via 5Dimes at time of publication. All betting %'s are offshore market consensus)

Liverpool at Everton (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Liverpool -110, Everton +330, Draw +280

Liverpool will likely be without Mo Salah after he was injured in their 3-0 home win over Manchester City in the Champions League Wednesday night. They’ll also likely rest some players ahead of the second leg in Manchester, which comes quickly on Tuesday night. Liverpool won’t take this match lightly by any means, but it’s a tricky derby fixture played on the road in the early afternoon. Will they be able to apply the same constant pressure on Saturday as they did on Wednesday?

Everton have shown glimmers of hope in recent weeks and could be catching Liverpool at the right time. The market agrees, as they opened +530 and have been bet down all the way to +330 despite strong support for Liverpool. Public bettors will continue to take Liverpool, especially now that they're at a shorter price of -110, but the value here is Everton +330 at home.

Tottenham at Stoke City (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Tottenham -300, Stoke +1065, Draw +450

Stoke City showed some signs that they could compete at Arsenal last weekend but still fell 3-0. They're -335 favorites to be relegated and desperately need points to climb out of the bottom three of the Premier League. Unfortunately, they're dealing with injuries, suspensions, and general turmoil, and have to face a healthy Tottenham club still aiming for a second- or third-place finish. All the line movement has been toward Tottenham, and I like Spurs to take care of business on both the moneyline (-300) and goal-line (-1.5, -105).

Newcastle at Leicester City (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Leicester City -103, Newcastle +340, Draw +260

This match stuck out to me because of the Islam Slimani link even though he won't be taking part in this weekend's fixture. I've always liked him as a player and he had a crucial part of Algeria's success in the 2014 World Cup, but was loaned out by Leicester City and has had injury issues at Newcastle. He's only 29 years old and I think he's capable of improving a club, though it may be neither of two teams next season.

Newcastle (35 points) can inch closer to going over their season point total of 38.5, while Leicester City (43 points) still have some work to go over 49.5. Public bettors are taking Leicester City at home, but sharper money has come in on Newcastle, moving their moneyline odds from +368 to +332.  Leicester City are fighting for a coveted seventh-place finish which could get them in Europa League next year, but Newcastle are coming off two straight wins and are likely safe from relegation. With conflicting pressure levels, and with the juice trending toward the under 2.5, I think the strongest play here is the draw +260.

Burnley at Watford (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Watford +133, Burnley +245, Draw +210

Yep, another Burnley draw. This is a system play that you can't stop betting just because it suffers a few losses in a row, so with the short moneyline (+210) and low total (2 goals), it's a must.

Manchester United at Manchester City (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Man City -112, Man Utd +332, Draw +285

Manchester City have a chance to win the Premier League title with a home victory over rivals Manchester United. Although the league has essentially been over for months, City could use a nice momentum boost following their 3-0 debacle loss at Liverpool in Champions League.

Over recent days, their odds to beat Man United have dropped from -150 to -112, but public bettors are keeping the faith with 62% of tickets. Man City haven't lost at home all season and have only drawn once (43 of 45 possible points), so it's easy to see why. While the actual travel won't an issue for "road" team Man United, the comfort of being back in their home stadium should help Man City as well. However, the big drop in odds has me wary of backing the home side, so instead I think the teams will split the points in a draw at +285.

Value Plays (33-51 season record, +17.30 units, 20% ROI)
All plays risk 1 unit
Everton (+330) vs. Liverpool
Tottenham (-1.5 goals, -110) at Stoke City
Leicster City/Newcastle Draw (+260)
Watford/Burnley Draw (+210)
Man City/Man Utd Draw (+285)

You can also follow me on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) for all the latest soccer news and updates.

Cover photo features Manchester City's Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero