Premier League Week 37 Betting Preview and Picks
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We're down to the final couple weeks of the 2017-18 Premier League season, and there's still a fascinating relegation race at the bottom of the table.
Relegation Odds:
West Brom picked up all three points last weekend and are still barely alive to stay in the Premier League even though odds remain off the board. Huddersfield appeared to be safe just a few weeks ago at +600, but they're now +110 to be demoted, just barely above a 50% chance to stay in the top division. Swansea (+275) have struggled lately, but they do have a favorable remaining schedule (Bournemouth, Southampton, Stoke City).
The most notable matchup toward the top of the table this weekend is Chelsea hosting Liverpool on Sunday (11:30 a.m. ET). Liverpool are rare underdogs (+240) in this one, but they won't mind, as they have a big Champions League Final in three weeks.
I've examined the betting market for every match on this weekend's slate and found three value plays (+20.18 units, 20% ROI this season) worth wagering:
- Manchester United at Brighton (Friday, 3 p.m. ET)
- Tottenham at West Brom (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
- Southampton at Everton (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
2017-18 Season Trends
Draws have earned a 5.4% ROI for the 2017-18 season, while road teams have suffered with a -14.8% ROI. With just 26 matches left this season, will visitors rebound?
(All odds via Pinnacle at time of publication. All betting percentages are offshore market consensus. You can find the latest odds and public/sharp info with a Sports Insights membership.)
Manchester United at Brighton (Friday, 3 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Man Utd -140, Brighton +425, Draw +275
The public is all over Manchester United (-140) to get the road win at Brighton, so this is a great spot to go contrarian and take the home underdog. At four different offshore sportsbooks, Bookmaker, BetUS, Sportsbook), more than 80% of tickets have come in on Manchester United. However, there's been reverse-line movement on Brighton to get a win/draw, and I agree with the sharp money so far. At +0.5 goals (+120), I love the value on Brighton.
Tottenham at West Brom (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Tottenham -217, West Brom +648, Draw +384
There are two tremendously profitable Bet Labs systems pointing toward big underdogs West Brom in this one, and I haven't been shy about buying low on the Baggies late in the season. Both historical systems date back five-plus years and have earned an 82% and 83% ROI in a sample size of more than 100 games.
There's also been a bit of sharp money on West Brom since opening, with the line moving from +792 to +648 at Pinnacle. Even though the odds have already come down considerably, I still believe there's value on West Brom to pull off another upset, and they're available at +675 at some squarer sportsbooks. If you have the option, it's always smart to shop around the market to get the best odds, as it will pay off in the long run.
Southampton at Everton (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Southampton +166, Everton +190, Draw +235
Despite being the road team, oddsmakers have actually made Southampton the favorites due to their desperation to win and stay in the Premier League. But they've managed only two league road wins all season, so this seems to be a bit of an overreaction.
Bettors have agreed with that assessment so far, as Southampton have moved from +140 to +160 at Bookmaker since odds opened, and they've risen to +166 at Pinnacle. This feels like it will be an incredibly disappointing draw for Southampton, so the +235 on that outcome is where I'm placing my bet.
Value Plays (40-61 season record, +20.18 units, 20% ROI)
All plays risk 1 unit:
Brighton +0.5 goals (+120) vs. Manchester United
West Brom (+675) vs. Tottenham
Everton/Southampton Draw (+235)
You can also follow me on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) for all the latest soccer news and updates.
Cover photo features Liverpool's Mo Salah against Chelsea's Cesar Azpilicueta
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