Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks: Will Bayern Munich’s Attack Be Too Much For Union Berlin?

Credit:

Photo by A. Beier/Getty Images for FC Bayern. Pictured: Serge Gnabry, Leon Goretzka

May 17, 2020, 11:17 AM EDT
  • Bayern Munich (-625) started off the season sluggish, going just 5-3-2, but will look to assert its dominance today against Union Berlin (+1400).
  • Bayern's attack should be the difference in this one, as the team leads the league in both goals and expected goals. The squad has been especially impressive on the road, scoring at least three goals in eight of 12 road matches this season.
  • The public seems to believe in them, as this line as of Sunday morning has ballooned up over -600 for Bayern to win.
  • Is that a good bet? What about the over/under? We break it all down below.

Bayern Munich at Union Berlin Betting Odds, Pick

  • Bayern Munich odds: -625
  • Union Berlin odds: +1400
  • Draw: +600
  • Over/Under: 3.5 (+100/-124)
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: FS1

Odds as of Sunday at 11 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Bayern Munich head to Union Berlin as huge favorites to tighten their grip on first place in the Bundesliga.

Bayern were on an 11-match unbeaten run (10 wins, 1 draw), outscoring opponents 38-6, before play was halted. They are -500 favorites to win their eighth Bundesliga title in a row.

Newly promoted Union Berlin have enjoyed great success in their first season ever in the Bundesliga. Currently sitting in 11th place, Union Berlin have all but secured a second season in the top flight. It’s a terrific achievement for a club, which club has an incredible history and some of the most passionate fans in all of soccer. If you are looking for a scrappy underdog to root for, Union Berlin is your team.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich had an uncharacteristic start to the season under Niko Kovac. Under their former manager, Bayern put together a 5-3-2 start, which for any other club would be pretty good, but, for the 28-time champions of the Bundesliga, its cause for panic.

Kovac was sacked on Nov. 3 after a 5-1 defeat at the hands of Frankfurt. Enter Hansi Flick.

Under Flick, Bayern have revitalized their attack, adopting the Jurgen Klopp style of play: The Attacking High Press. If you would like to read in detail on how much Flick has transformation Bayern Munich, this a great article on the mid-season turnaround. The Bavarians have only dropped eight points in Flick’s 15 matches and have scored 48 goals in the process.

Bayern have one of the most potent attacks in the world led by the trio of Robert Lewandowski, Serge Gnaby, and Thomas Muller who have combined for 41 goals and 28 assists so far this campaign.

An eighth Bundesliga title in as many seasons looks all but certain for the German Giants.

Union Berlin

Union Berlin have been a tough team to figure out this season. The Iron Ones have beaten the likes of Dortmund and Gladbach, but have lost to teams at the bottom like Werder Bremen and Fortuna Dusseldorf. Union Berlin currently has an expected goal differential of -11.32, which fairly in line with their current -9 goal differential.

Ultimately, they’re a below-average team and 11th place is probably their ceiling at this point

Previous Meeting 

Bayern Munich won the reverse fixture, 2-1, back in October. Bayern struggled for most of the the game and gave Union Berlin a chance to get a result. The expected goals report shows the game should have closer to 3-2 as Union Berlin missed a penalty at the beginning of the second half and Bayern could not capitalize on their 20 shots.

It has to be noted that Kovac was in charge of Bayern for that match.

Analysis

Bayern’s attacking output jumps off the page right away. The Bavarians lead the league in goals for and expected goals for and have scored three or more goals in eight of their 12 road matches this season.

One area of the field Bayern will look to attack is the six-yard box. Bayern  boast the best expected goals for per game inside the yard box of 0.64 xGF, while Union Berlin have the worst defensive expected goals inside the six-yard box at 0.51 xGA per game.

Ultimately, I think Union Berlin will not be able handle Bayern Munich’s attack and Bayern will score at least 3 goals.

My model has has the total expected goals scored at 4.03. Since the over/under of 3.5 is at plus odds, I think there is good value on the over.

My Pick: Over 3.5

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