There’s always an array of factors to consider when placing any sporting bet, at least when it comes to finding the best value. In this article, we’re looking at certain matchups across Europe where the underdogs pose a matchup problem for the favorites.
We saw a couple of big upsets in Europe’s top leagues last weekend as Brighton (+460) took down Manchester United and Sassuolo (+390) defeated Inter in Serie A’s opening weekend.
The following matches across Europe offer good odds on teams that, while deserved underdogs, have had success against their respective opponents this week.
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Bayern vs. Hoffenheim Odds
- Bayern Munich moneyline: -416
- Hoffenheim moneyline : +981
- Draw: +553
- Over/Under: 3.5 (-105/-116)
- Kickoff: Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Bayern may have wiped the floor with new manager Niko Kovac’s former club Frankfurt in the German Super Cup, but a meeting with Hoffenheim may well be a more difficult assignment.
The Croatian was a shock appointment at the Allianz, and it’s no secret he was not the club’s first choice to replace the re-retiring Jupp Heynckes, whom they desperately wanted to stay.
One of those ahead of Kovac on the wish list will be in the opposite dugout for the Bundesliga curtain raiser on Friday, and the champions’ interest in Julian Nagelsmann was not without merit.
The Hoffenheim coach is still just 31 but led a team of modest means to third last season, and he has proven a tough opponent to the Bavarians in the past.
In Munich, an away win would be a massive shock, but Hoffenheim have opened the scoring against Bayern in all four of their competitive meetings since Nagelsmann’s appointment, and the odds on doing so again are huge.
Bet: Hoffenheim to score first +333 (bet365)
Newcastle vs. Chelsea Odds
- Newcastle moneyline: +427
- Chelsea moneyline: -151
- Draw: +285
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-113/-107)
- Kickoff: Sunday, 11 a.m. ET
Chelsea are under new management, but that in itself is nothing new for the club, who haven’t enjoyed their trips to the North East in recent times.
In fact, Chelsea haven’t won at St. James’ Park since Newcastle’s promotion back into the top flight in 2011.
Five games have passed since, with the hosts winning four and scoring at least twice in every meeting.
They face a Blues defense that was taken apart all too easily against Arsenal last time out, even though they won the match 3-2.
Former Chelsea boss Rafa Benitez hasn’t masterminded a victory yet this season, but Newcastle were unfortunate not to pick up a point against Tottenham in the season opener.
The Spaniard will be motivated to beat Chelsea, and while a victory may be too much to ask of the Magpies, but backing them to cover the +0.5 isn’t a bad bet.
Bet: Newcastle +0.5 +132 (5Dimes)
Fiorentina vs. Chievo Odds
- Fiorentina moneyline: -215
- Chievo moneyline: +703
- Draw: +346
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-114/-101)
- Kickoff: Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Fiorentina kick off their league campaign a week later than scheduled following the postponement of their meeting with Sampdoria and they will be keen to get off to a winning start.
A meeting with Chievo, who gave Juventus an almighty scare last week, won’t be straightforward, but back in Florence they will fancy their chances, and the odds are stacked in their favor.
In order to find the best price, then, one need only look back to Chievo’s last five visits to Tuscany to see that they have struggled to pose an attacking threat.
Indeed, Fiorentina haven’t conceded a goal at home against Chievo in more four years, with five meetings between the sides passing since.
Bet: Chievo Team Total Under 0.5 -105 (Bookmaker)
Marseille vs. Rennes Odds
- Marseille moneyline: -204
- Rennes moneyline: +509
- Draw: +343
- Over/Under: 2.75 (-117/-103)
- Kickoff: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Having gotten off to a flying start to their Ligue 1 campaign against Toulouse with a 4-0 victory, Marseille were brought back down to earth last time out.
A shocking 3-1 defeat to newly promoted Nimes will have taken some of the confidence out of Rudi Garcia’s side, and Rennes will look to exploit any further complacency, with OM preparing to face Monaco next weekend.
The visitors to the Velodrome this Sunday enjoyed a strong season under Sabri Lamouchi last time around — finishing fifth — and while they lost in Lille in the season opener, Rennes went seven games unbeaten on the road to end the previous campaign and have since bagged their first three points of this one.
Marseille have won only three of their last 11 meetings against this weekend’s visitors, and have lost three of their last six to Rennes at home, so bouncing back from defeat may be more difficult than the odds suggest.
Bet: Rennes double chance +123 (Bookmaker)