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Arminia Bielefeld vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday Bundesliga Match (Oct. 31)

Arminia Bielefeld vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday Bundesliga Match (Oct. 31) article feature image

Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images. Pictured: Jadon Sancho.

  • Arminia Bielefeld are big underdogs against Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday morning.
  • Dortmund have not allowed a single goal in their last three Bundesliga matches and Matthew Trebby thinks Saturday will be more of the same.
  • Here's how he's betting Dortmund vs. Arminia:

Arminia Bielefeld vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds

Arminia Bielefeld Odds +650 [BET NOW]
Borussia Dortmund Odds -265 [BET NOW]
Draw +400 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-177/+138) [BET NOW]
Time 10:30 a.m. ET
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Arminia Bielefeld would consider the 2020-21 campaign a major success if they’re able to secure another season in the Bundesliga. Matches like this one, at home against Borussia Dortmund, are likely to provide them a reminder of just how difficult that task will be.

Dortmund enter this match on a stellar defensive run of form, especially domestically, while Bielefeld have struggled to the tune of three straight league defeats.

The result seems as though it will be straightforward, so let’s go about finding value in this matchup.

Arminia Bielefeld

The Bundesliga newcomers got off to a memorable start to the league season with an away draw to Eintracht Frankfurt and a win over FC Koln. They got those four points with expected goal performances of 0.62 against Frankfurt and 0.16 in the win over Koln, who registered 1.37, which indicates a bit of fortune for Bielefeld to have gotten all three points from that fixture.

Since then, it’s been three straight defeats for Arminia Bielefeld at the hands of Werder Bremen, Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg.

According to expected goals data, Bielefeld need to improve on both sides of the pitch. They rank 17th of the 18 Bundesliga clubs with just 3.68 xG through five games, which lines up with the four they’ve scored. Defensively, they have 10.26 expected goals allowed (xGA) compared to the eight they have actually conceded.

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund have had two blips in its otherwise perfect start to the 2020-21 season, a Bundesliga loss away to Augsburg and a defeat to Lazio in Rome in the Champions League. Manager Lucien Favre’s side has thrived domestically since the Augsburg setback, with three wins in as many matches while scoring eight goals without conceding a single one.

Favre has changed Dortmund’s formation from a 3-4-2-1 to a more typical 4-2-3-1 over the past two matches, mostly due to the health of his attacking line. With Marco Reus back in the fold, Favre has a multitude of attacking options at his disposal, with established playmakers Julian Brandt and Thorgan Hazard finding themselves on the outside looking into the starting 11 at the moment.

Again, though, the defense has been the story. Manuel Akanji and Mats Hummels have been rocks at the back throughout the season, while Raphael Guerreiro and Thomas Meunier provide quality going forward and in defense at fullback. Dortmund are hitting their stride, and it all starts at the back.

The numbers back up Dortmund’s stellar defensive start to the season. According to non-penalty expected goals allowed (NPxGA), Dortmund has the best defense in the Bundesliga at just 3.52 for the season. They are just 0.03 NPxGA ahead of top-of-the-table RB Leipzig.

Going forward, the attack could use a boost in form from young English sensation Jadon Sancho, who is off to a slow start in terms of goals and assists to start the season. He scored the winner against Zenit St. Petersburg in the Champions League on Wednesday, while Erling Haaland got his typical goal to seal the result.

Arminia Bielefeld-Borussia Dortmund pick

After their strong start to life in the Bundesliga, Bielefeld’s biggest problem has been when they conceded goals in their last three defeats: in the first half. Of the seven goals they’ve given up, six have come in the first half.

In Dortmund’s last five games, they’ve scored 11 goals. Ten of those have come in the second half. That feels like a trend that needs a game like this to correct itself.

While Dortmund is likely to rotate the squad with Champions League games on either side of this fixture, they are not going to score over 90% of their goals in the second half this season. The Black and Yellow will hope to hold strong defensively while dominating possession and breaking through early against their hosts.

The first-half moneyline at -121 presents the best value on the board for a match that Favre’s team is likely to take all three points from.

The PICK: Dortmund 1H moneyline -121

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