Bundesliga: Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim Updated Odds, Picks and Predictions for Saturday (June 27)

Credit:

Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images. Pictured: Jadon Sancho of Borussia Dortmund.

  • Borussia Dortmund are -129 favorites over Hoffenheim in the updated odds for their match against Hoffenheim on Saturday morning.
  • Dortmund have nothing to gain from winning this match, while Hoffenheim could improve their Europa League standing with a result
  • BJ Cunningham previews the match and makes the case for Borussia Dortmund, which begins at 9:30 a.m. ET on FS2:

Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim Odds, Pick

Dortmund odds -129 (BET NOW)
Hoffenheim odds +290 (BET NOW)
Draw +330 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 3.5 (-112/-110) (BET NOW)
Time Saturday, June 27 (9:30 a.m. ET)
Channel FS2

Dortmund wraps up their season Saturday at Signal Iduna Park as they host Hoffenheim. Dortmund has nothing to play for in this game, as they’ve already secured second place in the table and have been knocked out of the Champion League. Hoffenheim are in the final Europa league qualification spot, but could jump Wolfsburg with a result and avoid having to qualify next season. 

Dortmund

Oustide of losses to Bayern Munich and Mainz, Die Borussen has been perfect going 6-0-2 since the break. Based on expected goals, they’ve been dominant in those eight matches accumulating a +6.71 expected goal differential. Erling Haaland has been on fire since he joined Dortmund in January scoring 13 goals in 14 appearances. To put it in prospective, Haaland is scoring 0.82 xG per 90 minutes, which is the same rate as Cristiano Ronaldo.

So far the news out of Dortmund is they will field a similar team to last week, so, I expect Dortmund to field a strong team against Hoffenheim. I think Die Borussen will have no trouble creating a number of quality chances against weak Hoffenheim defense.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Hoffenheim

Die Kraichgauer has been in decent for since the return from break, earning 14 of a possible 24 points. In those eight games, Hoffenheim has been dominate scoring 2.65 xG per game, while only allowing 1.61 xG per game. Despite their good run of form, Hoffenheim has struggled defensively this season allowing 1.78 xG per game, which ranks 14th in the Bundesliga.

They’ve also struggled mightily against teams ahed of them in table this season. In eleven matches, they’ve been completely outplayed, losing on average 1.40 xG per game to 2.40 xG per game.

The line on this game has moved in Hoffenheim’s favor, since they are the only team with something to play for. However, I don’t think they will be able to stop Dortmund’s high flying attack.


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Analysis

It is always difficult to handicap these types of games where one team has nothing to play for. But, if Dortmund fields a solid starting XI this line is way too low for a team of their caliber:

  • Dortmund projected odds: -189 (65.37% win probability)
  • Hoffenheim projected odds: +535 (15.76% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +430 (18.87% win probability)
  • Dortmund projected xG: 2.27
  • Hoffenheim projected xG: 1.03

Even though they have nothing to play for, I am going to back Dortmund to finish the season strong and grab all three points at home.

Pick: Dortmund -132

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