Champions League Odds & Betting Picks: Predictions for Tottenham vs. RB Leipzig, Atalanta vs. Valencia
Adam Davy/EMPICS/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Hugo Lloris
- Tuesday's Champions League slate includes Tottenham vs. RB Leipzig and Atalanta vs. Valencia.
- Read about odds, betting picks and predictions for both of these matchups.
Tottenham Hotspur at RB Leipzig
- Tottenham odds: +480
- RB Leipzig odds: -180
- Draw: +330
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-134/+110)
- Time: Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET
RB Leipzig won the first leg at Spurs on Feb. 19, 1-0, on a Timo Werner penalty goal in the second half. That scoreline flattered Spurs, who were unable to retain possession against Leipzig’s high press. If not for Tottenham center back Davinson Sanchez and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris’ excellent performances, Leipzig could have scored two or three at Tottenham three weeks ago.
Without the attacking options of Heung-min Son and Harry Kane, Spurs have struggled to generate much of any offense, especially without an experienced striker in the squad. Spurs have created just 3.3 expected goals in their last four Premier League and Champions League matches since Son’s injury. This culminated in Saturday’s lackluster offensive performance at Burnley, where Spurs created 0.4 xG and needed a penalty to score their lone goal in a 1-1 draw.
Since a good run of form after hiring manager José Mourinho, Spurs have collapsed in the last month.
Leipzig should have no problem controlling large portions of the match against Spurs’ depleted lineup. Tottenham has no one to occupy the center of the penalty area during the build up of attacks, and Leipzig’s press is a whole lot better than Burnley’s.
While it’s hard to bet against Mourinho in the Champions League, he’s said himself that Spurs are “like a gun without bullets.” I’ll keep fading them until they prove capable of breaking a press or producing shots.
The pick: RB Leipzig -180
Atalanta at Valencia
- Atalanta odds: +135
- Valencia odds: +175
- Draw: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 (+126/-152)
- Time: Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET
Perhaps the least competitive of the four knockout matches this week, Atalanta and Valencia comes with a special twist. Due to the spread of the coronavirus around Europe, UEFA ruled that this match would be played behind closed doors, with no fans in attendance.
The two teams played a wide-open first leg, and the same should be true in the second leg with Valencia chasing goals, down 4-1. The Spanish side will need at least three goals, likely more, to get through.
Valencia has struggled with its performances away from home, losing its last four in all competitions. But at home, it is unbeaten in its last four, including a win against Barcelona and a draw with Atlético Madrid.
While Atalanta’s 4-1 win looks impressive from the first match, a closer look suggests they were fortunate to even win the match. Valencia actually won the match on expected goals, 2.1-1.5, per StatsBomb. And when the Italian side tried to protect its early lead, Valencia ripped them apart, and would have scored three goals in the second half with even an average finishing performance. In total, Valencia outshot Atalanta, 18-11.
While Atalanta has played well domestically, this is the first time La Dea have ever competed in the Champions League. They conceded nine goals in their three away group stage matches. I’m expecting a goalfest, one where Valencia +175 on the moneyline offers great value as the Spanish side looks to pull off a miracle comeback.
The pick: Valencia ML +175