Columbus vs. New England Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday MLS Playoffs (Dec. 6)
Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New England Revolution goaltender Matt Turner.
- Columbus hosts New England today in the Eastern Conference final of the Major League Soccer playoffs.
- The Revolution is unbeaten in seven postseason appearances against the Crew.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives you his top picks below.
Columbus vs. New England Odds
|Columbus Odds||+155 [BET NOW]|
|New England Odds||+165 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+240 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125/-105) [BET NOW]|
|Day/Time||Sunday, 3 p.m. ET|
Everything will be on the line Sunday when Columbus hosts New England in the Eastern Conference final of the Major League Soccer playoffs, with a spot in the MLS Cup final at stake.
The Crew, seeded No. 3 in the conference playoffs, reached this point in the tournament via their 2-0 overtime win against Nashville. On the other side, the eighth-seeded Revolution fought their way to an impressive 3-1 victory over Orlando City. It marked their second consecutive road triumph in the playoffs.
These clubs did not meet during the regular season, but the Revolution hold a distinct advantage over the Crew in postseason play.
Historically, New England has owned Columbus in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, having never lost to its host in the postseason. The Revolution have four wins and three draws against the Crew in the seven contests, with their most recent win coming in the 2014 competition.
However, one thing is for sure. Someone’s impressive run is going down in this affair. New England’s unbeaten streak will come to a close or Columbus suffers its first home loss to New England for the first time in six years.
With all that said, let’s take a peek at what could be in store.
The Crew really could not be happier with their performances in the run-up to the conference final, scratching out victories against ultra-tough Nashville and the New York Red Bulls.
Pedro Santos and Gyasi Zardes have led the Columbus attack, which has generated plenty in their opponents’ defensive thirds of the pitch. Perhaps the most unsung hero for the yellow and black has been Lucas Zelarayan, who assisted on goals from Santos and Zardes in their latest win.
When looking at the statistical data, Columbus finished with a solid 30.8 expected goals for and 29.9 expected goals against, resulting in a +0.9 xGDiff and +0.04 xGDiff/90 minutes.
In all honesty, the Crew’s xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes are surprisingly mediocre for such a powerful club to say the least.
This has been a dream playoff run for manager Bruce Arena and the Revolution, which included a blowout win against top-seeded Philadelphia in the first round of the tournament.
Arena finally has a healthy club, led by standouts Gustavo Bou, Adam Buksa and Carles Gil, that would not surprise anyone if it brought home its first MLS Cup in what would be its sixth try after five championship losses.
Goalkeeper Matt Turner has been on point for New England, which should have the defense even more confident entering this match. Turner made a huge save on a penalty kick from Nani in that win over Orlando City, which only highlighted his in-form play as of late.
When comparing New England’s numbers to Columbus, the visiting side had much better figures in the same advanced metrics. The Revolution boasted a respectable 33.0 xG and solid 26.9 xGA, which resulted in an impressive +6.1 xGDiff and +0.26 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
On paper, this is one of the most even conference finals I have seen in quite some time.
Columbus has been a model of consistency pretty much the entire season. Then, you have a New England outfit that might be playing the best brand of soccer outside Seattle at this moment.
So, suffice it to say, I had a really difficult time trying to pick a side. I feel like New England has the slightest of edges in this affair, largely due to the fact it has the hottest goalkeeper at the moment in Turner. Add in the Revolution’s performances away from home and you have a team potentially destined to reach the finale.
However, I feel the safer play is backing the total staying under the alternative number of three goals. The odds currently sit at -182, which is a lot of juice. However, I already played it at that price and will tack on more in the first half via a live play as the odds drop in the early going of the game.
There have been fewer than three goals in six of the last eight meetings between these clubs, including the three most recent contests. That alone has me believing we’re in for another low-scoring tilt.
I will also sprinkle a little on both teams to score, with the thought process being we could get a 1-1 draw or 2-1 result as a potential worst-case scenario. Needless to say, that would deliver us a nice profit.
Picks: Total Under 3 Goals (-182) | BothTeams To Score — Yes (-159)