European Soccer Betting: Finding Value In Rome, Madrid Derbies

Sep 28, 2018 3:18 PM EDT
  • There are several key matches across Europe this weekend including derbies in Rome and Madrid.
  • There's a way a savvy bettor can profit from the chippy nature of Lazio vs. Roma in the props market.
  • Atletico Madrid have fared well against rivals Real Madrid and this could be a good spot to back Atleti on the road.

Soccer can be a cruel game, and so too can betting on it! Having successfully called four from five Saturday tips the week previous, we were on course for an impressive repeat last weekend.

With three correct tips in the bag, Sampdoria were on course to earn a draw at home to Inter to complete the checklist before a 94th minute Marcelo Brozovic winner.

Despite that I’m heading back to Italy to start my selections for this Saturday’s action, once more looking to the trends in matches that suggest the odds may be imbalanced, bookending my four selections with massive capital city derbies.


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Betting Odds: Lazio at Roma

  • Lazio moneyline: +195
  • Roma moneyline: +129
  • Draw: +264
  • Over/Under: 3 (Over -105/Under -116)
  • Kick-off: Saturday, 9 a.m. ET
  • Channel: ESPN+

We kick off this week’s tips with a tasty Derby della Capitale between Roma and Lazio in the early match in Serie A, and there is certainly no love lost between the two fierce rivals.

As is usually the case when games are so emotionally charge and played at such a high intensity, it’s difficult to predict the outcome, with Roma edging the head-to-head over the last six meetings three to two. Lazio undoubtedly approach this one in better form, on the back of a four match winning streak in the league, but form counts for less, if not little on such occasions.

One thing that you can usually count upon, however, is that the tackles will be flying and refereeing will be strict, particularly with VAR in place to fall back on in Italy’s top-flight.

It’s something of a niche bet, but there are prices out there on at least one red card to be shown to either of the two teams, and historically there’s a remarkable trend of players receiving their marching orders when these sides come to blows. There have been no fewer than 20 red cards across the last 20 meetings of the capital city clubs, so the odds are more than tempting on that trend continuing.

Bet: Player to be sent off in the match +188 (Unibet)


Betting Odds: Borussia Monchengladbach at Wolfsburg

  • Monchengladbach moneyline: +194
  • Wolfsburg moneyline: +138
  • Draw: +246
  • Over/Under: 2.75 (Over -105/Under -114)
  • Kick-off: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
  • Channel: ESPN+

It’s been a decent start to the season for both of these sides so far, though their win over Frankfurt in midweek ensures that it’s Gladbach who head into the game one place ahead of their hosts, in fifth.

Away from home, however, the Foals have been somewhat abject for some time now, with just one point from their opening two matches on the road stretching a winless run to seven in the league going back to the previous season.

The visitors’ record on their travels in this particular fixture is worse still, and while Wolfsburg have had their problems in recent years, this is a match — at home — that they have still tended to come out on top in.

In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time that Gladbach picked up all three points at the Volkswagen Arena, and in the 13 meetings since they have managed to earn a share of the spoils just twice.

Bet: Wolfsburg win +138 (Bookmaker)


Betting Odds: Borussia Dortmund at Bayer Leverkusen

  • Borussia Dortmund moneyline: +134
  • Bayer Leverkusen moneyline: +185
  • Draw: +268
  • Over/Under: 3 (Over -105/Under -116)
  • Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
  • Channel: FS2

It’s fair to say that the bookies are backing goals when Bayer Leverkusen host Borussia Dortmund, and understandably so given the array of attacking talent on display.

The latter’s 7-0 win over newly-promoted Nurnberg was evidence enough that they have the firepower to trouble the host’s defense, but it’s worth bearing in mind that BVB have been a very different side away from home thus far and unconvincing on their travels for some time.

Both of the visitors’ away games have seen under 2.5 goals so far, managing just one goal across two draws with Hannover and Hoffenheim.

Leverkusen have started to find some form after a dismal start but are still averaging just one goal per game themselves thus far so when you consider that the last four meetings between the sides at the BayArena have seen two goals or less, the odds on a similarly low scoring affair are high for two sides with upcoming European matches on their minds.

Bet: Under 3 goals -116 (Bookmaker)


Betting Odds: Atletico Madrid at Real Madrid

  • Atletico Madrid moneyline: +254
  • Real Madrid moneyline: +118
  • Draw: +224
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (Over -113/Under -107)
  • Kick-off: Saturday, 2:45 p.m. ET
  • Channel: beIN Sports

How better to round off this week’s tips than another capital city derby, this time in Spain where Real Madrid will be aiming to bounce back from a huge shock in midweek.

Los Blancos fell behind Sevilla, 3-0, in the first half and never got back into the match. They will now need to re-compose themselves ahead of this meeting with rivals Atletico.

Diego Simeone’s men were on the right end of a 3-0 win themselves on Tuesday, and with a day’s extra preparation will have Real firmly in their sights.

The visitors could leapfrog their hosts with a win on Saturday, and while they will remain the underdogs, it’s a status that has fared them well in matches against their neighbors in La Liga.

In fact, Atleti have lost just one of the last 10 league meetings between the sides. Moreover, the last two defeats they have suffered in 12 against Real Madrid in all competitions both came courtesy of hat-tricks from a certain Cristiano Ronaldo, who wasn’t there to save his former teammates in the European Super Cup between these sides last month, with Atletico running out 4-2 winners after extra time.

Bet: Atletico Madrid +0.5 Goals -127 (5Dimes)


All odds current as of 3 p.m. ET on Friday.

Credit:

Atletico Madrid. Pictured: Antoine Griezmann

Follow Martin Laurence on Twitter
@martinlaurence7
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