Atlético Madrid vs. Valladolid Pick: Betting Odds, Predictions for Saturday’s La Liga Match (June 20)

Credit:

David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Maria Gimenez

  • Atlético Madrid are big favorites over Valladolid on Saturday afternoon, listed at -250, while Valladolid are +850 underdogs and the draw is set at +330.
  • Atlético's stout defense has them in fourth place in the La Liga table, while Valladolid are 16 points back -- in 15th.
  • Below you'll find odds, important metrics for handicapping the game, as well as a pick on one of the sides.

La Liga: Valladolid at Atlético Madrid Odds, Pick

Valladolid odds +850 (BET NOW)
Atlético odds -250 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +330 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155) (BET NOW)
Time Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
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Atlético Madrid are a well-oiled machine under Diego Simeone — if you can appreciate how hard it is to get a team, in any sport, to commit to a particular philosophy and execute to consistent success, year over year.

That’s what Simeone has achieved at Atlético Madrid, where his Colchoneros have become one of Europe’s toughest teams to beat over the past decade or so.

Atleti’s identity is unmistakable; they are a dogged defensive team that provides that defense with enough offense to come out ahead more often than not.

Simeone’s defense, which leads the league in expected goals allowed, is so sturdy that people often overlook Atleti’s offense, which ranks fourth in La Liga in creating expected goals and is due for a bit of positive regression.

Atlético Valladolid
Goals for per game 1.28 0.86
Expected goals for per game 1.72 1.02
Goals against per game 0.76 1.17
Expected goals against per game 0.96 1.69
Total goals per game 2.03 2.03
Total expected goals per game 2.68 2.71

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Unfortunately for Real Valladolid, they fit the exact profile of a team that Atlético Madrid should put away with ease. Not only does Pucela have the worst offense in La Liga by expected goals, they also concede the fourth-most xG per match.

Valladolid are quite fortunate not to be in a relegation scrap as their actual goal differential is about 8.5 goals better than their xG differential thanks to a bend-but-don’t-break defense that has allowed 34 goals despite conceding 45.06 xG on the season. According to expected points, Valladolid should be in second-to-last place in La Liga.

Anything can happen in a 90-minute match of soccer but I can’t get to the number on Valladolid because I’m not sure how they will score one, let alone the two goals that it will likely take to get a result at the Wanda Metropolitano.

Valladolid’s Team Total is set at 0.5 goal and the under is juiced to -167, which tells us there’s about a 62.5% chance that Atleti pitch a shutout on Saturday.

Instead of paying that kind of juice, I’ll back Atlético win this game by multiple goals at any number better than +115.

Pick: Atletico Madrid -1.5 (+123)

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