MLS Week 12 Betting Odds, Preview: Road Underdogs Providing Value Again
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Revolution players celebrating a home victory over San Jose.
- This weekend's MLS action is highlighted by Philadelphia-Seattle, LAFC-FC Dallas and Houston-DC United.
- 10 of 11 home teams are favored and there's plenty of road underdogs offering value on the slate including the newly revamped New England Revolution.
The first month of the 2019 MLS season was profitable for draws and overs, but since then the tide has turned.
2019 Season Results
- Home teams have won just over 50% of matches, but that’s resulted in a loss of 4.04 units overall
- Road clubs have profited 12.15 units due to a recent surge of underdogs pulling off upset wins
- Draws continue to suffer and are down more than 18 units on the season thus far, something that has become the norm in MLS
- Early in the season, overs were hitting at a nearly 60% clip, but goals have dried up despite the weather heating up
MLS Week 12 Odds
Home sides are favored in all but one matchup (FC Dallas vs. LAFC) with six of them odds-on favorites. LAFC, the best team in MLS, just beat FC Dallas on Thursday night as hefty -300 favorites and will try to make it twice in four days.
The clubs with the best chance of winning based on pre-match odds are Sporting Kansas City (-225 vs. Vancouver) and LA Galaxy (-215 vs. Colorado). Neither Sporting KC nor LA Galaxy have been that impressive this season, so the lines really reflect how poor Vancouver and Colorado have been.
There’s finally some variance in the totals market with over/unders ranging from 2.5 to 3.5.
MLS Week 12 Line Moves
Philadelphia (-115 to -130) vs. Seattle
The Union are attracting all the early action and oddsmakers have adjusted their odds from -115 to -130. The Sounders have been one of the top teams in the league, but Philadelphia hasn’t lost since April 13, a run of four wins and one draw.
The Sounders were one of my preseason MLS Cup picks, but I love the way this Philadelphia team has come together this season and I’m not interested in fading them right now.
Houston (-125 to -150) vs. D.C. United
D.C. United have made it a habit of playing low-scoring games, and it’s worked out recently. They haven’t dropped points since a 1-0 loss at Minnesota United and conceded just twice in the last five matches, but the market has heavily shifted toward the Houston Dynamo from -125 to -150.
Lines usually move toward home favorites, and now that D.C. United are available above +400, they’re worthy of a wager to pull off the upset.
LAFC (+140 to +105) at FC Dallas
LAFC has cemented themselves as the favorites to win the 2019 MLS Cup and have already amassed 30 points through 13 matches. They just beat FC Dallas on Thursday night, 2-0, and have shifted from +140 to +105 for Sunday night in Los Angeles.
Buying Road Underdogs
There are a few road underdogs that have really caught my attention this weekend.
- The New England Revolution will play their first game under new head coach Bruce Arena, and they’ve also made necessary changes to the front office including the departure of Mike Burns as GM.
The Revs have lost 8-of-13 matches this season and conceded an average of 2.38 goals per game with just one shutout. They also haven’t won a road game in the last ten tries, but Saturday afternoon is certainly winnable since Ignacio Piatti is still out injured for the Impact.
Just 11% of bettors are backing New England, but I’ve summoned up the courage to take them now that they’ve overhauled the front office. This is a great time to buy low, especially after the Revs picked up a 3-1 win over San Jose last weekend, so take NE at any price above +400.
Oddsmakers give the slight edge to Real Salt Lake at home, but now that the moneyline has increased, I like the value on Toronto FC at anything above +215 to earn all three points.
- Chicago haven’t won in their last 17 road games but a trip out west to play the Earthquakes provides a fantastic opportunity to break that streak.
There’s hardly been any line movement thus far and this probably won’t be the most anticipated match of the weekend, but the current value on the Fire at +240 is too solid to pass up.
Value Plays (MLS Season Record: 10-21-2, -3.80 units)
- New England (+400) at Montreal
- Toronto FC (+215) at Real Salt Lake
- Chicago (+240) at San Jose
- D.C. United (+420) at Houston