Big MLS Favorites Creating Betting Value on Saturday Night

Jul 28, 2018 12:53 PM EDT
  • MLS road teams went a perfect 4-0-1 in midweek action and are looking to continue the run.
  • Five of the eight favorites Saturday night are listed at -140 or higher, creating betting value across the board.

Saturday night features a busy eight-match slate in MLS, including a marquee matchup between the Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City.

After analyzing the betting market for all eight matches, I’ve picked out four value plays today.

Season Record: 35-41-2, +16.68 units, 22% ROI

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Atlanta United at Montreal Impact

Moneyline odds: Atlanta United +124, Montreal +216, Draw +270
Total: 3 (u-117)
Time: 7 p.m. ET

In their previous head-to-head matchup early in the season, Montreal took an early lead on the road but ultimately lost, 4-1, at Atlanta United.

Atlanta United have scored the most goals (46), they’re tied for the best goal differential (+21), and they’re tops in league points (44). The Montreal Impact are somehow tied for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference despite just one draw all season and a -9 goal differential. They’re also near the bottom of the league in shots per game while Atlanta United are one of the best at denying shots on target.

This lopsided matchup on paper has also seen lopsided public action. More than 80% of tickets have come in on Atlanta United (+124) to get all three road points, but their current odds are now longer than the opening odds. It appears that some early, smart money has come in on Montreal, but I’m not willing to back them.

Bet: Pass


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Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Timbers forward Fanendo Adi (9)

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