Sunday MLS Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chicago Fire vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Ray Chavez/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Wondolowski
- Looking for MLS betting odds and picks for Sunday night's Chicago Fire vs. San Jose Earthquakes match (8 p.m. ET, FS1)? You're in the right place.
- The Fire are slight +140 favorites over the Earthquakes (+177), with the draw set at +270 and the over/under at 3 goals.
- Below you'll find a preview of both sides, as well as projected odds for comparison and a betting pick.
Chicago Fire vs. San Jose Earthquakes
|Chicago odds||+140 [BET NOW]|
|San Jose odds||+177 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+270 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3 (+100/-125) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Sunday, 8 p.m. ET|
The leaders in Group B face off Sunday night with a potential trip to the Round of 16 on the line. Chicago was moved to Group B after FC Dallas and Nashville FC had to drop out of the tournament, then upset the 2019 MLS Cup Champions Seattle in their first match, thanks to a 84th minute winner from Mauricio Pineda.
San Jose pulled off an incredible comeback in their last match, scoring three goals in the final 18 minutes to win 4-3 over the Vancouver Whitecaps. If San Jose wins they will be guaranteed a spot in the Round of 16. If Chicago wins, they will vault themselves to the top of the group and almost surely secure a spot in the Round of 16.
The Fire were impressive against the reigning champions in their first match, winning 2-1 and winning the expected goals battle 1.28 to 0.89. Chicago converted there two big scoring chances (35%> chance of scoring) and limited Seattle to only one shot that exceeded 0.10 xG.
The Fire are in a transition year, with a new owner, manager, sporting director, and technical director. That transition also extends to the field as the Fire have lost their unquestioned leader and former Bayern Munich captain, Bastian Schweinsteiger, to retirement.
They’ve also lost one of their best attacking players Nicolas Gaitan to LOSC Lille, but the Fire brought in a number of talented European attacking players to fill the void, so it will be interesting to see how successful they will be in their first season in the Windy City.
Last season, Chicago was the most underrated team in MLS. The Fire ranked inside the top five in both expected goals for (1.72) and against (1.36) per match, but finished a disappointing eighth-place in the Eastern Conference. Even though they won their first match, I think the massive amount of roster turnover could comeback to bite them.
San Jose Earthquakes
The Earthquakes held Seattle to a 0-0 draw in their first match and pulled of an incredible comeback against the Vancouver Whitecaps to win 4-3 in their last match. They absolutely deserved the win over the Whitecaps, outshooting them 30-7 and winning the expected goals battle 2.29 to 0.82.
San Jose returns 96% of a roster that should have been a playoff team last season. Based on expected points, San Jose should have finished in the fourth place in the Western Conference in 2019.
The Earthquakes may be in the bottom half of the MLS when it comes to talent, but they still managed to put up the fifth-best xGF (1.70) and seventh best xGD (1.52) last season. I think their chemistry combined with the momentum from their comeback win in their last match will be enough to get all three points against Chicago.
Chicago opened as a +115 favorite in this match, but has quickly risen up to +140. That is rise is due to 85% of the money being on the Earthquakes, per public betting data available in the Action Network App.
Based on my model, I think the drift is warranted and will back the Earthquakes in this match:
- Chicago Fire projected odds: +195 (33.85% win probability)
- San Jose Earthquakes projected odds: +141 (41.46%)
- Draw projected odds: +305 (24.69%)
- Chicago Fire projected xG: 1.37
- San Jose Earthquakes projected xG: 1.53