MLS Is Back Betting Odds and Pick (Thursday, July 16): Columbus Crew vs. New York Red Bulls
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- Betting odds for tonight's MLS Is Back Tournament between New York Red Bulls and Columbus Crew have Columbus favored at +132, New York at +188 and the draw at +250.
- Both teams are coming off impressive wins in their respective first matches.
- Below you'll find a complete list of betting odds for the match, as well as projected odds for comparison, and an expert pick on the moneyline.
Columbus Crew vs. New York Red Bulls Betting Odds
|Columbus Crew odds||+132 [BET NOW]|
|New York Red Bulls odds||+188 [BET NOW]|
|Draw odds||+250 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125/-105) [BET NOW]|
|Time||10:30 p.m. ET|
The MLS is Back Tournament continues Thursday as the leaders of Group E battle for a potential trip to the Round of 16. Columbus looked fantastic in its first match, routing FC Cincinnati 4-0 on Saturday behind a Gysai Zardes brace. New York Red Bulls pulled off a 1-0 upset of Atlanta United last Saturday and now have a fantastic opportunity to go through to the Round of 16.
Columbus was impressive offensively in its first match against FC Cincinnati; however, expected goals shows us they were fortunate to win by as much as they did. The Crew won the expected goals battle only 1.38 to 0.32 against the worst team in MLS from a season ago.
The Crew were riddled with injuries last season and finished a disappointing 10th in the Eastern Conference.
Columbus wasn’t an offensive juggernaut, generating a measly 1.25 expected goals per match in 2019. However, the Crew addressed those issues by signing Lucas Zelarayan from Liga MX’s UNAL Tigres, who got on the scoresheet in his first match. The Argentine will provide a big boost in the No. 10 role for the Crew.
Although the Crew looked great against FC Cincinnati, the Red Bulls are a step up in competition, and I think they will have a more difficult time finding the back of the net than in their first match.
New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls were impressive in their first match against the 2018 MLS Cup Champions. New York went ahead in the 4th minute behind a Florian Valot breakaway goal and held on for the remaining 86 minutes to win 1-0.
The Red Bulls had some key departures in the offseason with the likes of Luis Robles, Bradley Wright-Phillips and Kemar Lawrence leaving the club. The Red Bulls didn’t make any significant moves to replace them, either.
The core of the Red Bulls is still solid and can compete with the top teams in MLS, but the Red Bulls lack depth across the board. The Red Bulls were the definition of average last year, ranking 15th in expected goals for per match (1.50) and 12th in expected goals against per match (1.50). I think they will be able to build off their win against Atlanta United with another solid performance Thursday night.
This line opened at a pick’em, but has since slid down to the Crew being slightly favored. Based on my model, I think the Red Bulls are undervalued on Thursday night.
- Columbus Crew projected odds: +190 (34.51% win probability)
- New York Red Bulls projected odds: +166 (37.53%)
- Draw projected odds: +258 (27.95%)
- Columbus Crew projected xG: 1.15
- New York Red Bulls projected xG: 1.20
Therefore, I am going to back the Red Bulls to get at least a draw: