West Ham United vs. Aston Villa Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Monday, Nov. 30)
Alastair Grant/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Ollie Watkins celebrates a goal against Arsenal.
West Ham vs. Aston Villa Odds
|West Ham Odds||+135 [BET NOW]|
|Aston Villa Odds||+190 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+260 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-143/+115) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
Things could get pretty electric in Premier League action Monday when West Ham United hosts Aston Villa at London Stadium.
Both clubs have gotten off to solid starts in their respective campaigns, landing them in the top half of the table for their efforts.
Aston Villa has had the slightly better go of it thus far, sitting in seventh place on 15 points. The Villans are actually tied with Manchester City on points, but hold the tiebreaker over the Cityzens.
On the other side, West Ham is just a point back in ninth place, with the possibility of jumping into the top five with a victory in this fixture.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at these outfits and see what’s in store.
The Hammers are coming off back-to-back 1-0 shutouts against Fulham and Sheffield United. Yes, those wins came against the worst sides in England’s top flight, but picking up six points will never hurt a team’s confidence.
Prior to those victories, West Ham scratched out draws against Tottenham Hotspur (3-3) and Manchester City (1-1) before suffering a tough, 2-1 loss to defending champion Liverpool.
The Hammers do have a huge recent edge in this series, going unbeaten in their last six meetings with the Villans across all competitions.
When it comes to the statistical data, West Ham have put together some decent numbers so far. The Hammers sit on a solid 12.8 xGs and respectable 10.2 expected goals against, generating a +2.6 xGDiff and +0.28 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
All told, the club is in the middle of the pack across all advanced metrics.
The Villans, who returned to the first division this season, have to be pleased with their overall performance through eight fixtures.
Aston Villa did lay an egg in its most recent game, dropping a 2-1 decision against Brighton & Hove Albion. However, the club thoroughly dominated Arsenal at The Emirates in a 3-0 win prior to that defeat. Ollie Watkins, who has a team-leading six goals, scored twice in that impressive triumph.
The Villans look to continue their road prowess as they seek their fourth consecutive clean sheet away from Villa Park. Their biggest win of the season thus far came in a 1-0 surprise against Leicester City at King Power Stadium.
Like its latest foe, Aston Villa has produced some quality statistics in similar statistical categories. The Villans boast a modest 13.3 xGs and 11.0 expected goals against, resulting in a +2.3 xGDiff and +0.29 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Those numbers are almost identical when matched against Aston Villa’s data.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This is such a tough match to get a grasp on due to the fact these two are mirror images of one other. I think this fixture could be played 10 consecutive times and you’d get a split down the middle in terms of results.
That being said, I think this will be a tight affair, with both sides taking a more conservative approach. For that reason, I am backing the total to stay under the alternative number of three goals as my top selection.
Recent history supports my angle, with the total staying under 2.5 goals in eight of the last nine meetings between these foes across all competitions.
If you’re looking for a side, I am avoiding both clubs and sprinkling a little on the draw at a ripe price. These teams are so evenly matched on and off the pitch, so I will take a swing on this affair finishing in a stalemate.
Picks: Draw +260 | Total Under 3 Goals (-148)