Wolves vs. Southampton Odds, Picks, Predictions for Monday Premier League (Nov. 23)

Wolves vs. Southampton Odds, Picks, Predictions for Monday Premier League (Nov. 23) article feature image
Credit:

Stu Forster/Getty Images. Pictured: Moussa Djenepo, Che Adams

  • There is very little separating Southampton and Wolverhampton in the Premier League this season.
  • That said, it's Wolves who are the favorites for Monday afternoon's match.
  • Jeremy Pond previews this tight contest and makes a case for the teams to split the points at the Molineux.

Wolves vs. Southampton Odds

Wolves Odds +128 [BET NOW]
Southampton Odds +235 [BET NOW]
Draw +225 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155) [BET NOW]
Time 3 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds updated as of Saturday at 11:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Things could get pretty interesting Monday when Wolves hosts Southampton in Premier League action at Molineux Stadium.

This showdown pits clubs sitting in the top 10, separated by just three points in the standings.

A Southampton victory would push the club as high as second in England’s top flight and continue its push a potential Champions League berth down the line. In contrast, Wolves has been in stellar form as of late, going unbeaten in four of their last five contests to move into 10th place in the 20-team league.

That said, let’s take a look at these contest and see what’s in store.

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Wolves

Things have been going relatively well for the host side after a sluggish start.

Wolves have been on point as of late, particularly on the defensive side of things. The club is 3-1-1 in its last five matches, highlighted by shutout wins against Fulham, Leeds United and Crystal Palace.

It did suffer a tough-luck, 1-0 setback against powerful Leicester City prior to the international break, but don’t expect that defeat to have a long-lasting effect on this resilient bunch.

When it comes to the statistical data, Wolves have accumulated some interesting (good and bad) numbers this season. The club sits on a brutal 6.9 expected goals, but boast a solid 9.2 expected goals against in league play.

Put those together and they generate a subpar -2.3 xGDiff and -0.29 xGDiff/90 minutes, which shows Wolves struggle to score despite being one of the best in league on the defensive side of things.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Southampton

The Saints could not have asked for a better start to their league campaign, finding themselves with a 5-1-2 record on 16 points thus far.

How good has Southampton been? The visiting side is just a point behind reigning champion Liverpool and four points back of league-leader Tottenham Hotspur on the table, making this an even more important match.

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Southampton has really put things together offensively, racking up 16 goals this season in eight league games. Danny Ings, Southampton’s leading goal-scorer, will miss the match but his absence hasn’t slowed down the Saints as Che Adams has filled in admirably with Ings on the sidelines.

The Saints, winners of five of their last six league tilts, are coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Newcastle United prior to the break.

Like Wolves, Southampton has compiled some pretty interesting numbers itself, sitting on a mediocre 8.7 xGs and impressive 8.5 expected goals against, yielding a respectable +0.2 xGDiff and +0.02 for xGDiff/90 minutes.


Betting Analysis & Picks

This should be a pretty tight affair, with both defenses taking center stage.

Playing at Molineux Stadium brings out the best in Wolves, who are unbeaten in their last four home games against Southampton. The club has conceded just two goals in its last five matches, which has me believing Southampton won’t find much success going forward.

That said, I am backing the total to stay under the number. Expect the defenses to shine throughout this showdown and goals to be hard to come by in this meeting of marquee sides.

I am also going to sprinkle a little on the game finishing in a draw. These clubs are beyond evenly matched, so I think it’s worth taking a shot on this ripe price.

Picks: Draw +225 | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-155)

[Bet the Wolves-Southampton match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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