Serie A Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Inter Milan to Rout Torino (Monday, July 13)

Credit:

Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Samir Handanovic

  • Inter is a big favorite over Torino in Monday Serie A action, with the total listed at 3.
  • Brad Cunningham's model makes Inter an even bigger favorite, so he's backing them to win comfortably.
  • Get his full analysis and model projections for Torino vs. Inter below.

Inter Milan vs. Torino Odds

Inter Milan odds -225 [BET NOW]
Torino odds +575 [BET NOW]
Draw +360 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (-115/-107) [BET NOW]
Time Monday, 3:45 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+

Odds as of Sunday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Inter Milan continue their campaign to secure a top four finish as they host Torino at the San Siro. Inter is currently in fourth place in Serie A, two points behind Atalanta.

A win would mean they would jump into third place, which would mean they would avoid going through Champions League qualification. Torino is safe from relegation for now, but is in danger of slipping into battle if they lose on Monday.

Inter Milan

It’s been a fantastic season for Inter. This is the most points they’ve had in over a decade at this point in the season. The reason they have been so successful is due to their defense, which ranks first in Serie A in terms of expected goals, allowing only 1.04 per match.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Their offense has been no slouch either, averaging 1.97 expected goals per match. Much of their offensive success can be attributed to the attacking duo of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez. The two have combined for 32 goals so far this campaign and are averaging 1.25 xG per 90 minutes on the season.

La Nerazzurri has been stellar at the San Siro as well, winning on average by 1.14 expected goals per match (2.19 xGF, 1.06 xGA). Most of their success at home has come from beating up on the bottom half of the table. In eight matches, La Nerazzurri has gone 6-2-0, outscoring their opponents 17.64 xG to 5.90 xG.

Inter hasn’t been in great form since the restart, earning only 10 of a possible 15 points against a really weak schedule. Playing against a side as bad as Torino may be what La Nerazzuri needs to get them back on track.

Torino

With the win against Brescia on Thursday, Il Toro has pulled themselves out of the relegation battle. They finally put to end a terrible run of form that dated all the way back to mid-January. Torino has lost eight of its last 11 matches and has been outscored 27-12.

Life on the road has not been too kind to Il Toro this season. They’re mustering only 1.16 xGF per match, while allowing 1.80 xG per match. They’ve also been in poor form lately on the road, losing their last five matches as well as the expected goals battle 8.86 to 5.26.

The guys at Total Football Analysis have done a fantastic job breaking down why Torino find themselves in this bad run of form.

The summary: Their three-man back line struggles against pacy, skillful players and against teams that over-commit players into the final third. Inter checks both of those boxes.

Analysis

I don’t see this match going any other way than an Inter blowout and based on my model, I think Inter is undervalued at home:

  • Inter projected odds: -310 (75.62% win probability)
  • Torino projected odds: +1161 (7.93%)
  • Draw projected odds: +508 (16.45%)
  • Inter projected xG: 2.32
  • Torino projected xG: 0.67

Therefore, I am going to back Inter to win this match by multiple goals.

Inter -1.5 (+123)
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