Monday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Liverpool vs. Arsenal (Sept. 28)

Monday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Liverpool vs. Arsenal (Sept. 28) article feature image
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Matt Dunham/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Sadio Mané.

  • Defending champion Liverpool hosts rival Arsenal in a marquee Premier League showdown Monday at Anfield.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives his top plays.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal Odds

Liverpool Odds -195 [BET NOW]
Arsenal  Odds +460 [BET NOW]
Draw +375 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (+104/-129) [BET NOW]
Time 3 p.m. ET
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If there are two Premier League clubs who are all too familiar with one another, it would have to be Arsenal and defending champion Liverpool.

The combatants meet again Monday, highlighting another solid week of fixtures in England’s top flight.

Liverpool and Arsenal are both perfect at this early stage of the season, with both sides hoping to continue their respective unblemished starts. This is the first of two meetings between the sides in a four-day window. It also marks the third time Arsenal will oppose the defending champion in its last eight games.

That said, let’s take a look at Liverpool and Arsenal to see what could be on deck in this marquee contest.

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Liverpool

There really is no place like home for the Reds when it comes to Anfield. Liverpool is in the midst of a 60-match unbeaten run in league play on its pitch, which is the third-longest streak in league history and dates back to April of 2017.

The Reds opened their campaign with a thrilling 4-3 win against Leeds United, then followed that with a 2-0 victory against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Sadio Mané recorded a second-half brace for Liverpool, a team that looks just as solid it he did throughout much of last season’s historic title run.

There isn’t a ton to go on in regard to data and analytics, but Liverpool currently sits among the league’s best with 5.9 expected goals and 1.6 expected goals against, resulting in a +4.6 xGDiff and +2.15 xGDiff/90 minutes. The xGDiff/90 is second in the league behind red-hot Everton.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Arsenal

The Gunners have to be somewhat pleased with their start to the campaign. However, a 3-0 win against Fulham in its opener, followed by an ugly 2-1 victory against West Ham United, must have Arsenal feeling it needs to improve its play if it’s going to hang with the reigning champion.

The one thing working for Arsenal in this fixture is the fact it’s won the last three games against Liverpool, including a victory in August’s Community Shield. That recent result alone should have the Gunners feeling plenty of cautious optimism in this Anfield showdown.

Arsenal has respectable numbers in similar categories, sitting on 3.2 expected goals and  2.1 expected goals against, resulting in a +1.1 xGDiff and +0.53 xGDiff/90 minutes. The Gunners’ defense has been its strength thus far, conceding just one goal in its opening two matches.

Betting Analysis

Liverpool is the deserved favorite in this fixture on both form and its absurd current tear at Anfield. I do think the Reds pull out all three points in this spot,  but feel like the safer angle is playing the total to go over the alternative number of three goals at -120 odds.

Goals galore happen when these sides meet, with 54 goals combined in their last 11 meetings. Driving home my love for the total is the fact there have been at least three goals in eight of the last nine matches between them at Anfield.

Arsenal’s offense is potent enough to the find the back of the net at least once in this confrontation, so I will also play both sides to score with confidence.

Picks: Total Over 3 (-120); Both Teams To Score — Yes (-162)

[Bet the over and both teams to score at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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