Sunday Premier League: Best Bets, Odds and Picks for Fulham vs. Everton (Nov. 22)
Emma Simpson/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Everton star Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
- Everton are odds-on road favorites to defeat Fulham in their Premier League match at Craven Cottage on Sunday morning.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup and explains why the struggling Toffees are a good value bet against Fulham:
Fulham vs. Everton Odds
|Fulham odds||+290 [BET NOW]|
|Everton odds||-112 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+280 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-136/+108) [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 a.m. ET|
|How to Watch||Peacock Premium|
Everton looks to rebound from a bad run of form when it takes on Fulham in Premier League action Sunday morning at Craven Cottage.
The Toffees had the best start of any team in England, sitting top of the table for the first few weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve been playing terribly, losing three consecutive matches and falling to seventh place on the table.
Suffice it to say, Everton’s match against Fulham is a perfect opportunity for the club to get its season back on track.
Fulham’s return to England’s top flight started out in horrible fashion and hasn’t gotten much better. The Cottagers have amassed only four points through their first eight matches and have struggled in front of net, scoring only seven goals on the season.
The host side will likely be in the relegation battle all season long, so it needs points wherever it can get them if they want to stay up in the first division.
As previously mentioned, the Cottagers have gotten off to a disastrous start. They have lost six of their first eight matches, allowing the fourth-most goals in the league so far this season.
Fulham, which allowed 1.30 xG per match in the Championship, is projected to allow more than two xG/game this season. That’s something we’re already seeing a trend toward, as the Cottagers have conceded 1.62 xG thus far.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Also, the club has struggled to generate quality chances, creating only 1.13 xGF per match in the league. Fulham made a lot of purchases during the transfer to bolster its attack, but so far it hasn’t made any drastic improvements. The Cottagers need to improve on both ends of the pitch if they are going to get a result against this kind of talented opposition.
It’s been tough sledding for the Toffees the last few weeks, but it’s not all bad news. Everton has been creating a ton of high quality chances, as it’s averaging 1.73 xGF per match. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been on fire up front for the Toffees, scoring eight goals in his last eight appearances. He’s averaging a ridiculous 0.79 xG per 90 minutes, which is the fourth-highest scoring rate in the league.
Everton has also been better defensively than its results have shown. The Toffees are allowing only 1.28 xG per match, which is much lower than their actual 1.75 goals allowed per match. The other piece of good news is that this will be one of their easiest defensive tests, outside of West Bromwich Albion.
Projections and Pick
Despite the bad run of form, I think Everton is undervalued on the road in this spot. The visiting side is a significantly better team than Fulham and should be able to create a ton of high-quality chances.
I have the Toffees projected at -139, so I think there is value on them at -112 via DraftKings. However, I would only play it up to -119 on the money line.
Pick: Everton -112