Wednesday Premier League Odds, Betting Picks & Preview: Chelsea vs. Liverpool Preview (July 22)

Credit:

Robin Jones/Getty Images. Pictured: Tammy Abraham of Chelsea.

  • Updated Premier League odds list Liverpool as a favorite over Chelsea, with the total at 2.5 and juiced to the over.
  • Liverpool has really lost its magic since the restart, and won't top the 100-point mark to set the Premier League points record.
  • Get Dillon Essma's full preview and prediction below.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool Odds

Chelsea odds +260 [BET NOW]
Liverpool odds -103 [BET NOW]
Draw +275 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-157/+125) [BET NOW]
Time Wednesday, 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Chelsea and Liverpool face-off at Anfield Wednesday night. This game is a little tough to handicap as Liverpool has already won the league, and looked pretty average over the past month.

Technically Chelsea isn’t safely in the top four yet, but it feels very likely given how Leicester City has been playing. The Foxes face off against Manchester United at Old Trafford this weekend, which will likely be a Man U victory.

Liverpool

Prior to the break, Liverpool were on a historic run with 100 points in their sights. Ever since they returned, the magic has really left the field. Over the course of the season, Liverpool had a positive goal differential of +1.34 goals/game. Over the past month, their goal differential is just +0.43 goals/game.

Advanced metrics only say +0.58, so it’s not like they have been getting unlucky. They just look like a team that have already won the title. That extra push in the final 15 minutes that would come to bite their opponents has gone missing. I think Liverpool would be happy with a draw here.

Chelsea

Chelsea have been in the top four for most of the season. However, over the past 10 games or so, Leicester City have really collapsed. The most likely scenario is that Man United will beat both West Ham and Leicester City, and Chelsea will be safe in the top four regardless of what they do in their final two league games. Chelsea is also in the FA Cup Final, which is another variable for Frank Lampard to navigate.

Chelsea has been a bit unfortunate from an xG perspective, both over the length of the season and as of late. Their season long goal differential is 15 goals, but their xG differential is 33. This is also true over the past month, with an actual goal differential of 3.0 vs. xG differential of 8.0 goals. This could come down to finishing ability, but it is likely to regress at some point.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Liverpool

Full Season After the Break
Goal differential/game +1.34 +0.43
xG differential/game +1.00 +0.58

Chelsea

Full Season After the Break
Goal differential/game +0.42 +0.43
xG differential/game +0.92 +1.18

Obviously Chelsea would prefer to win this game, but it might not feel like they need it due to Leicester’s current form. The motivation factors are tough to read, but I would bet the draw here.

Pick: Draw +275

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