Bournemouth vs. Leicester City Odds, Predictions: Betting Picks for Sunday’s Premier League Match

Leicester City at Bournemouth Odds

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Sunday's final Premier League match carries major implications as Leicester City heads to the Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth.

Bournemouth are staring relegation in the face after both Watford and West Ham won on Saturday. The Cherries are now six points away from safety with four points to play so a loss on Sunday afternoon would all but seal their fate.

Leicester are in a must-win spot for a very different reason. The Foxes have a one-point lead over Manchester United for the fourth and final Champions League spot. United are red hot and are favorites to beat Southampton on Monday, so anything less than a win would be a crushing blow for Leicester.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Bournemouth

The Cherries finally go their first point since the break on Thursday, drawing with Tottenham, 0-0, at home. Bournemouth haven't had any success during a winless Project Restart but their -8 goal differential (12 GA, 4 GF) is a bit unfair compared to their -1.63 expected goal differential.

Bournemouth have a -4.75 xG differential and have earned just 17 points in 16 home matches this season. Home games for Bournemouth have typically been high scoring, with an average of 3.02 total expected goals. That has translated to 59% of matches at the Vitality Stadium going over 2.5 goals. With a high powered Leicester offense coming to town, we could be in store for a high scoring affair.

Leicester

The Foxes come into the match off a 1-1 draw with Arsenal on Tuesday. Leicester was fortunate as Arsenal received a red card late in the match, which allowed them to equalize by way of a 84th minute Jamie Vardy goal.

If the Foxes are to hold on to their Champions League spot, they’ll have to overcome their recent bad run of form away from the King Power Stadium. The Foxes have taken only three points from their last six matches on the road, but they’ve been a tad unlucky as they have won the expected goals battle, 8.26 to 7.54, in those matches.

Leicester matches average 2.85 total expected goals and 59% of their matches have featured at least three goals.

Leicester's offense which averages, 1.60 xG per match, should have no trouble breaking down Bournemouth's defense.

Analysis

My model is pretty close to the current betting market, so I'll look to the total instead. I project this game for 2.99 expected goals, so I'll happily back Over. 2.5 at -113.

• Bournemouth projected odds: +358 (21.83% win probability)
• Leicester projected odds: -125 (55.60%)
• Draw projected odds: +343 (22.57%)
• Bournemouth projected xG: 1.12
• Leicester projected xG: 1.87