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Burnley vs. Norwich City Odds and Best Bets: How to Bet Saturday’s Premier League Match

Burnley vs. Norwich City Odds and Best Bets: How to Bet Saturday’s Premier League Match article feature image

CLIVE BRUNSKILL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Dyche

  • There is only one Premier League match on Saturday and it features relegated Norwich City as home underdogs against in-form Burnley.
  • Michael Leboff doesn't think there's much value in the moneyline odds, but the Over/Under could be too low considering that Burnley's defense is due for regression.
  • Check out his full preview below:

Burnley at Norwich City Odds, Pick

Burnley odds +125 [BET NOW]
Norwich City Odds +230 [BET NOW]
Draw +235 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+108/-134) [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET

Odds as of Friday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

You have to imagine the folks at NBC weren’t all that thrilled with this match landing on their flagship network, but here we are. Norwich City, already relegated and in the midst of a soul-sucking eight-game losing streak, during which they’ve been outscored 17-1, will host Burnley in an empty Carrow Road.

Burnley do have the slimmest of chances to crawl into a Europa League spot, but there’s very little off-the-field intrigue to this match outside of that.

It’s the type of game only a better could love.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Norwich have been the league’s worst team for most of the season, but the Canaries have taken it to a whole new level during Project Restart. Norwich have lost all seven of their matches, sport a -15 goal differential and have the worst expected goal differential of any team in the Premier League since play resumed.

It’s a bit cliche to say a team is an extension of their manager, but in Burnley’s case it is true. Sean Dyche has his side organized, prepared and unafraid for every match. Burnley don’t really play an exciting brand of football, but their results speak for themselves. Dyche has a way to get the most out of a roster that is almost completely void of game-breaking talent.

What’s more impressive is that Burnley have been able to succeed since the hiatus. The Clarets had to watch several squad players leave the club after the break because of contract complications stemming from the shutdown. Things looked even bleaker when Man City welcomed Burnley back with a 5-0 throttling on June 22.

It looked like a good bet that Burnley would wobble down the stretch, but Dyche and his men turned the script and haven’t lost a game since being thumped by City. Perhaps the most impressive result of that bunch was a bend-but-don’t-break draw at Anfield against Liverpool.

Luck and good goalkeeping have played a role in Burnley’s surprising stroll towards the top half of the table, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the way the Clarets have made the most of things over the past month.

Impressively, Burnley have allowed only three goals over their last six matches, and they haven’t allowed more than one goal in a single game since that humbling defeat to Manchester City. That said, the Clarets are lucky to have that type of defensive record, as expected goals suggests they should have conceded 8.6 goals over their last half-dozen contests.

Norwich City shouldn’t prove too much to handle offensively for Burnley, but I am hopeful that the Canaries will play on the front foot and try to snap themselves out of this dreadful streak. I’ve been wrong about Norwich on a couple of occasions over the last month, but I’ll take my chances that the Canaries won’t just roll over here.

Burnley’s defensive record flatters them a bit and Norwich’s defense is dreadful, so I’ll back the Over 2.5 at plus-money and hope that this game is easier on the eye than most people think it will be.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+108)

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