Premier League Odds & Picks: How to Bet Everton vs. Southampton on Thursday

Credit:

Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Carlo Ancelotti

  • Southampton (+245) is traveling to Everton (+112) Thursday and will try to keep momentum going after a massive upset over Manchester City this past weekend.
  • Everton is coming off a loss earlier this week, but the Toffees have been solid since the COVID-19 restart, posting a positive expected goals differential.
  • Where's the value in this match after some line movement in the market? I break it down below and give my favorite pick for the game.

Southampton at Everton Odds, Pick

Southampton odds +245 [BET NOW]
Everton odds +112 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +245 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-115)
[BET NOW]
Time Thursday at 1 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Wednesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Everton and Southampton are coming off two very different results.

Everton are coming off a dull 1-0 loss at Tottenham on Monday, while Southampton pulled off a massive upset against Manchester City over the weekend.

Neither side has much to gain from this match as they are both comfortably positioned in the middle of the table.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Everton

Despite their loss at Spurs, the Toffees have been in good form since the restart. Everton have earned seven of a possible 12 points with a +0.18 expected goals differential. The Toffees have been playing well going back to December, when Carlo Ancelotti took over as manager.

The Italian has completely turned Everton’s season around and has the Blues playing like one of the top teams in England:

xGF per game xGA per game
Before Ancelotti 1.58 1.32
After Ancelotti 1.79 1.11

Everton have done a good job of beating teams below them in the table at Goodison Park. The Toffees are 4-1-1 in six matches with a +3.77 xG differential.

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Southampton

The Saints have been been buzzing during Project Restart, winning three of their last four matches. Those results, however, are a bit deceiving as the Saints have lost the expected goals battle, 7.37 to 4.77, in those matches, though much of that damage was done by Man City, who posted a 3.53-to-0.7 xG advantage over Southampton on Sunday.

Southampton have weirdly been much better on the road than at home in 2019-20. The Saints have earned 60% of their points away from St. Mary’s but most of that success has come against bottom feeders.

When they’ve played the bottom-eight teams in the standings on the road, Southampton have an average xG differential of 0.40. Against the top-12 teams that number dips to -0.37.

Previous Meeting

Everton won the reverse fixture between these two sides, 2-1, at St. Mary’s back in November. The Toffees were dominant in that match, outshooting Southampton 24 to 4 and holding 55% of the possession.

The expected goals report backed up Everton’s terrific performance. The Toffees won the xG battle, 2.38 to 0.87.

Analysis

Everton opened at -130, but have dropped all the way down to +112, thanks to 67% of the dollars coming in on Southampton, per The Action Network App. That support is likely due to Southampton’s impressive win over City and Everton’s loss to Spurs.

I think the line movement has created some value for the home side:

  • Everton projected odds: -129 (56.41% win probability)
  • Southampton projected odds: +399 (20.05%)
  • Draw projected odds: +325 (23.54%)
  • Everton projected xG: 1.75
  • Southampton projected xG: 1.01
Pick: Everton +112

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