Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Fulham vs. West Bromwich Albion (Monday, Nov. 2)
Rui Vieira – Pool/Getty Images.
- West Bromwich Albion makes the journey to Craven Cottage for Monday's match against Fulham.
- These are two of the Premier League's worst clubs, but Michael Leboff explains why he feels this is a prime spot to back the Baggies to scoop all three points.
Fulham vs. West Brom Odds
|Fulham Odds||+145 [Bet Now]|
|West Brom Odds||+195 [Live Odds in App]|
|Draw||+230 [Bet Now]|
|Time||Monday, 12:30 p.m. ET|
It’s pretty early in the season for a relegation six-pointer, but it’s hard to look at Monday’s match between Fulham and West Bromwich Albion and think anything else.
Neither side has a win. They have combined to take four of a possible 32 points with a minus-17 goal differential between them.
According to expected points, these are the two worst teams in the Premier League through the first six weeks of the season.
Honestly, it’s hard to argue with that notion.
This should be fun.
With just one point from six matches, you better believe manager Scott Parker has this game circled as a must-win for his rapidly sinking side.
According to expected goal differential, only one team has been worse than Fulham this season. The good news for the Cottagers is that they happen to be playing that team.
As was the case the last time Fulham were in England’s top flight, it’s really struggling to suppress scoring chances. Coming into Matchweek 7, the Cottagers were last in the league in goals allowed, second-to-last in xG allowed per match and tied for last (with West Brom) in xG per shot allowed.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
You can make the argument Fulham has been a bit unfortunate so far, due to the fact it’s allowing 2.0 goals on 1.56 xGA per game, but just because the club has been unlucky doesn’t mean it hasn’t been bad.
The Cottagers do have some pizzazz going forward, especially since the arrival of Ademola Lookman from Bundesliga side RB Leipzig. The gifted winger provides some width and creativity from the flank, which should — in theory — open things up for striker Aleksandar Mitrovic.
You aren’t going to win the league with a front three of Lookman, Mitrovic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, but they are certainly good enough to provide the opportunities needed for Fulham to at least be competitive against teams around them in the table.
For that to happen, though, Fulham will need its defense to sort things out. There’s perhaps no better opportunity for the Cottagers to do that than Monday’s visit from West Brom.
Manager Slaven Bilic’s Baggies come into this match above the relegation zone, with three points from six matches, but according to their expected goals differential they have been the worst team in the Premier League.
West Brom is allowing 1.7 goals on a league-worst 1.83 xG per match, and things are just as bleak on offense, where it’s creating a measly 0.45 xG per match. In fact, the Baggies have yet to create more than 1.0 expected goals in a single match this season and have generated just 1.44 total xG in their last three matches combined.
Somehow, West Brom has managed to score six goals on the season, but five of those tallies came in two games. The Baggies have managed just one goal in their last three contests, though they’ve only lost one of those contests.
While Fulham have been terrible, but also unlucky, West Brom have been terrible but also lucky at the same time.
I’m a little more optimistic about Fulham’s chances over the course of a full season, thanks to its attacking options. However, that doesn’t change the fact there isn’t much between these two teams. They have played like the two worst to start the campaign and it’s easy to imagine either one of them self-imploding on Monday afternoon.
It’s hard to blame anybody for wanting to pass on a match like this, but if you are looking for action on this battle between sides that seem destined for relegation, ask yourself this question: Can you pass up the opportunity of getting +195 to fade Fulham?
For me, the answer to that question is no, and I’ll be on West Brom to take all three points.
Pick: West Brom ML (+195)
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