Premier League Odds, Picks: How to Bet Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Credit:

Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images. Pictured: Allan Saint-Maximin of Newcastle United FC (10).

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Odds, Pick

Newcastle odds +138 (BET NOW)
Aston Villa odds +205 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +230 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-143)
(BET NOW)
Time Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A battle of the bottom of table takes place at St. James’ Park Wednesday between Newcastle and Aston Villa. Newcastle won its first game back against Sheffield United after they took advantage of red card from the opponents.

Aston Villa have looked much better since the break winning the expected goals battle in both their games. Aston Villa are the team with something to play for, currently sitting in 19th place, one point for safety. While Newcastle are in the middle of the table, safe from relegation, but too far from a Europa League spot.

Newcastle

Newcastle were fortune to go ahead after Sheffield United’s John Egan was sent off early in the second half. The Magpies were able to find some offense  after gaining the man advantage scoring three goals in 23 minutes.

Before the red card, the Magpies struggled offensively only generating 0.69 xG in the first 50 minutes of the game. They will need greatly improve against a suddenly revitalized Aston Villa squad.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


The Magpies really deserve to be lower in the table than where they currently sit. Based on expected points, Newcastle is 13.55 points higher in the table than where they should be (38 actual vs. 24.45 xPoints). Much of the reason for the variance is due their good fortune defensively.

On average, Newcastle concede 1.37 goals per game, which is significantly lower than their 1.76 xG allowed per game. Defensive regression will be coming for some point for Newcastle and playing against a desperate Aston Villa squad could a problem for the Magpies.

Aston Villa

The Lions have been much improved since the Premier returned from the break. Winning the expected goals battle in both of their matches between Sheffield United and Chelsea. Before the break, Aston Villa was the worst defensive team in the Premier League, conceding 2.18 expected goals per game. In their last two matches, the Lions have only conceded 0.88 xG per game.


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The Lions have been poor offensively scoring just 1.25 xG per game, but in their last two games, they’ve improved offensively averaging 1.50 xG per game. Playing against a weak Newcastle defense could be just the thing the Lions need to get out of the relegation zone.

Analysis

Based on the current line on DraftKings, I don’t see any value backing either side:

  • Newcastle projected odds: +130 (43.47% win probability)
  • Aston Villa projected odds: +210 (32.21% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +311 (24.32% win probability)
  • Newcastle projected xG: 1.60
  • Aston Villa projected xG: 1.36

Instead I am going to take a look at the total. I have 2.96 expected goals being scored in this game, so I am going to back Over 2.5 goals since I am getting plus odds.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+115)
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