Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chelsea vs. West Ham (Wednesday, July 1)

Credit:

GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Frank Lampard

Chelsea at West Ham Odds, Pick

Chelsea odds -190 [BET NOW]
West Ham odds +500 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +340 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+123/-152)
[BET NOW]
Time Wednesday at 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Frank Lampard’s Chelsea are on fire right now.

The Blues have won five matches on the spin, including wins over Man City and Leicester. Chelsea’s five-game winning streak hasn’t been enough to secure their spot in next season’s Champions League as in-form Manchester United are just two points back (with one more game played).

At the other end of the table sits West Ham, deep in the relegation battle and tied on points with 18th-place Bournemouth and 19th-place Aston Villa.

The Hammers need points wherever they can get them at this point in the season.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


West Ham

Going by expected goals, only Aston Villa are worse defensively than West Ham, who concede 1.96 xG per match. It’s been a very disappointing season for the Hammers and things have not gotten better since the Premier League’s restart last month.

West Ham are winless since the restart and were thoroughly outplayed in a pair of 2-0 losses to Wolves and Tottenham, respectively.

Those results continued West Ham’s wretched run of form over the second half of the season. The Hammers have only earned five of a possible 33 points and have an average -0.86 xG differential per match (1.16 xGF, 2.02 xGA) over their last 11 matches.

I wouldn’t count any home-field advantage in this match, either, as West Ham rank 17th in the Premier League with 16.19 expected points at home this season.

Chelsea 

The Blues are flying since the restart, winning both of their Premier League matches in addition their FA Cup quarterfinal match against Leicester over the weekend.

Chelsea’s offense hasn’t missed a beat and is averaging 2.34 expected goals per game over their last five matches.

Christian Pulisic has been especially good since the restart, bagging two goals in his last two games. His breakaway goal against Manchester City showed why he’s our Captain America.

Frank Lampard switched to a 4-3-3 formation halfway through the season and the change in tactics has paid huge dividends.

The 4-3-3 provides plenty of options going forward and it allows teams to combine two factors, a three-man central midfield — which can hold possession via passing triangles — and three strikers, who can press high up the field.

The Blues are scoring 2.10 xG per game, while only allowing 0.89 xG per game when playing out of the 4-3-3.

Analysis

Chelsea opened as a -151 favorite, but that number has since risen all the way up to -190, thanks to 97% of the money landing on Chelsea, per The Action Network App. My model agrees with the line movement:

  • West Ham projected odds: +603 (14.22% win probability)
  • Chelsea projected odds: -227 (69.45%)
  • Draw projected odds: +512 (16.33%)
  • West Ham projected xG: 1.05
  • Chelsea projected xG: 2.60

Based on those numbers, I am going to back Chelsea to win a high-scoring affair by multiple goals.

Pick: Chelsea -1 (-114); Over 3 (+123)

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