Bundesliga Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions for Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayern Munich (Saturday, Feb. 20)
Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski of Bayern Munich.
- Two of the most potent Bundesliga attacks meet Saturday when league leader Bayern Munich visits surging Eintracht Frankfurt.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the match and gives us his value play on the total below.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayern Munich Odds
|Eintracht Frankfurt Odds||+310|
|Bayern Munich Odds||-139|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-113 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Two of the highest flying attacks in the Bundesliga will meet Saturday as league leader Bayern Munich visits surging Eintracht Frankfurt.
Even though both attacks are in great form and scoring goals in bunches, the total in this match is overpriced. These two teams are over-performing their underlying numbers in attack more than every team in the league, bar none.
Frankfurt enters this game winning of eight of its last nine in the German top flight. Their xG difference is third-best in the Bundesliga and fourth best after you take out penalties from the numbers.
Frankfurt has mostly beaten up on some of the lower teams in the table, thrashing Schalke, Koln, Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha Berlin in recent weeks. This is a big step up in weight class for Frankfurt, but maybe the best chance they’ve had in years at knocking off the reigning champions.
The emerging story of the season for Frankfurt has been forward Andre Silva, who has 18 goals (12 non-penalty) from 15.6 xG. His offensive success isn’t just a product of finishing, he’s been a breakout star at age 25 in this improving Frankfurt attack. But there are also signs that Frankfurt will not keep scoring goals at the same clip they have been.
Frankfurt’s average shot distance from goal is tied for fifth-lowest in the Bundesliga. They rank third in chance conversion rate and are middle of the pack in NPxG per shot.
One of the under discussed stories of the entire European season has been the beginning of the changing of the guard in the Bundesliga’s top striker role. Even though Robert Lewandowski is still the leading scorer in the league, Dortmund’s Erling Haaland is running ahead of him in the xG per 90 numbers.
Where Lewandowski has made up for the difference has been through his finishing. Despite being a career under-performer of expected goals in front of net, Lewandowski is running way ahead of his expected numbers, with 25 goals from 17.9 expected.
That’s not to say Lewandowski isn’t still elite, because he is, but the Polish striker is unlikely to continue running this hot in attack.
Bayern has the highest chance conversion rate by 5% over the rest of the league and is finishing at an unsustainable rate.
Because Bayern have Lazio in the midweek in their Champions League title defense, there’s also the possibility that they will not press quite as much as they usually do.
For one, they don’t have the legs to be as effective during the coronavirus-packed schedule. Second, their defense has been torn apart by even the most mediocre of Bundesliga attacks.
Manager Hansi Flick hasn’t shown much of a willingness to adapt, but their recent defensive frailties could lead him to dial back the ridiculously high line just a little.
Betting Analysis & Picks
These two teams have been awarded seven penalties each, tied for the most in the league. As painful as it may to bet with two offenses as potent as Frankfurt and Bayern, the under is the play here.
Because both of these attacks are overrated relative to their expected goals and a projection of 3.28 goals to occur, I’ll hold my nose and take the under here on the alternative total as my top play.
Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (+100 or better)