Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks: RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach (Feb. 27)
Pool/Filip Singer – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcel Sabitzer.
- Early Saturday action in the Bundesliga pits RB Leipzig against Gladbach.
- Neither team is conducive to high-scoring matches, so Anthony Dabbundo sees value on the under in this game.
- Check out his full breakdown, complete with a betting pick and updated odds below.
RB Leipzig vs. Gladbach Odds
|RB Leipzig Odds||-175|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.|
Both RB Leipzig and Borussia Monchengladbach suffered setbacks in the Champions League to Liverpool and Manchester City, respectively, in the last two weeks.
Both sides may have suffered the same fate in the CL, trailing by two goals and heading on the road, but their league form could not be more different.
Bayern Munich’s shaky league form has opened the door for RB Leipzig to push itself back into the Bundesliga title race. Leipzig has won four straight, while Bayern has taken one point from their last six.
The gap is now two points, and the underlying numbers suggest that Leipzig are actually better than Bayern.
The main difference is defense: Led by Dayot Upamecano, Leipzig has allowed 19.3 xGA and 18 goals in 22 league matches. The underlying numbers from last season suggested that Julian Nagelsmann’s side had a lot of unlucky draws and that if it could have some better variance with finishing and turn draws into wins, it could be closer to Bayern for the league title.
Leipzig’s underlying numbers are no fluke, either. It’s second-best in opposition passes into the penalty area, allows almost two full shots per 90 less than everyone in the league and only faces 2.55 shots on target per 90.
In attack, Nagelsmann is going with the striker by committee approach, and it has struggled against some of the better defenses that Leipzig has faced.
It struggled to generate big chances against Liverpool’s backup center backs, and in the reverse fixture with Gladbach, had a lot of low-quality chances. Without a true recognized striker, it could be difficult for Leipzig to break down an underrated Gladbach defense.
Since it was announced that Marco Rose would leave Gladbach in the summer to go to Dortmund, its league form has taken a tumble. Losses to Mainz and Cologne, along with a goalless draw with Wolfsburg have sent Gladbach down to eighth place in the table.
Simply put, its defense has been unlucky to concede as many goals as it has, and its attack has been just bad. Gladbach is averaging 1.56 xG per 90 this year after sitting at 1.95 last season in the Bundesliga. It went from third-best attack to seventh-best.
Part of their struggles could be the form of their two best forwards, Alassane Plea and Marcus Thuram. They’ve been in and out of the lineup, and Rose has rotated his team more than most to prevent injury.
They’ve lacked the fluent passing and speedy attacks that defined their fourth-place finish last season.
Gladbach’s defense has allowed more goals than expected because teams are shooting really well on them. It allows the lowest xG per shot in the league and ranks sixth in shots on target allowed per 90, yet has allowed 33 goals from 26.4 xGA this season.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Much like the reverse fixture, there are unlikely to be lots of big scoring chances in this match.
Leipzig has struggled to generate them, and Gladbach allows the lowest xG per shot in the league.
At the other end, Leipzig’s defense has been very tough to break down, and Gladbach’s attack has been sputtering for weeks. There are unlikely to be a lot of goals in this one, and under 2.5 at plus money, or under 2.75 if you have it available, are both good options here.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+123)