Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Leicester City vs. Liverpool (Feb. 13)
Paul Greenwood – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Mohamad Salah.
Leicester City vs. Liverpool Odds
|Leicester City Odds||+245|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-139 /-112)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET|
The first game of the Premier League weekend is arguably the most interesting of the lot. Third-place Leicester City will host fourth-place Liverpool, with both teams battling for Champions League spots next season.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
Leicester City are three points ahead of Liverpool and two behind second-place Manchester United. But the Foxes weren’t impressive last weekend at Molineux. The match finished in a scoreless draw, but Wolves outperformed Leicester in terms of expected goals (xG), 1.9 to 0.7 (according to FBRef.com).
Leicester also had to play a midweek game, against Brighton in the FA Cup on Wednesday. The Foxes won, 1-0, but needed a 94th-minute goal from Kelechi Iheanacho to do so.
Some players were rested, at least from playing the full 90 minutes, and both Jamie Vardy and Wilfred Ndidi returned from injuries. However, starting fullback James Justin, who’s been excellent this season, was stretchered off and is out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury.
Liverpool were off this past week, having already been eliminated in the FA Cup, but they are coming off last Sunday’s demoralizing 4-1 loss to Manchester City. The defeat was the Reds’ third straight in the league at Anfield, something that hasn’t happened since 1963.
On the bright side, Liverpool have won their past two away fixtures, at West Ham and Tottenham — both of which were deserved 3-1 victories.
The Reds have lost only two of their 11 away matches in the league thus far — the 7-2 shocker at Aston Villa way back in early October, and an unlucky 1-0 defeat at Southampton on Jan. 4.
Betting Analysis & Picks
These teams met at Anfield on Nov. 22, and it was not close — Liverpool won 3-0, and it was nearly as lopsided in terms of xG, 3.7-1.3. But a lot has happened since then, particularly to the defending champs.
Diogo Jota scored one of Liverpool’s three goals in that game, but he remains out due to injury and certainly has been missed. Fabinho has been ruled out for this match as well, which doesn’t help.
Many people are down on Liverpool after last weekend, and their hopes of repeating are indeed in tatters. They are 10 points behind Manchester City, who also have a game in hand.
That being said, Liverpool are still the second-best team in the league in terms of xG difference at +15.2, with Leicester City only sixth in that category at +6.7. And Leicester haven’t been great at home thus far, losing five of their 11 league matches at King Power Stadium.
I’ll take this opportunity to pick Liverpool at plus money. That doesn’t come along too often.
Pick: Liverpool ML (+112)