Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: West Bromwich Albion vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, Feb. 27)

Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: West Bromwich Albion vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, Feb. 27) article feature image
Credit:

Lee Parker – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Sam Allardyce of West Bromwich Albion.

  • West Bromwich Albion and Brighton & Hove Albion are desperate for a Premier League win.
  • So, which relegation contender has the edge in Saturday's match?
  • Jeremy Pond gives his insight on this intriguing affair at The Hawthorns below.

West Brom vs. Brighton Odds

West Brom Odds +370
Brighton Odds -125
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (+108/-134) 
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.

Clubs in desperate need of  a Premier League victory go at it Saturday when West Bromwich Albion hosts Brighton & Hove Albion at The Hawthorns.

The Baggies, who are pretty much a lock to be sent down to the Championship next season, are winless in six on the bounce and sit in 19th place on the table. They’ve collected just 14 points on the season, putting them 11 clear of safety.

On the other side, the Seagulls continue to be one of the most frustrating teams in league history. Brighton, which is one of the best when it comes to advanced metrics, simply can’t put together a full 90 minutes on the pitch almost every time out.

Relegation worries should not be on the Seagulls’ minds, but the reality is they’re just four points clear of the bottom three in England’s top flight.

West Brom

The Baggies’ nightmare of a season continues in the West Midlands. Nothing is going right for the club, which has just one victory in its last 16 matches across all competitions.

Maybe the lone positive part of the campaign has been its most recent efforts. The Baggies have picked up three draws in their last five fixtures, including stalemates against Manchester United and Burnley in their most recent tilts.

Statistically, West Brom is the league’s worst and it really isn’t even close. The Baggies sit on a paltry 17.6 xG and ghastly 42.8 expected goals against that generate a -25.2 xGDiff (yes, you read that right) and -1.01 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Needless to say, West Brom needs to have a major turnaround and pretty much go unbeaten the rest of the way to change their gloomy, inevitable trajectory.

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Brighton

Manager Graham Potter, his Seagulls and everyone associated with them have to be utterly frustrated when it comes to their entire campaign. If I have said it once, I will say it again: Brighton is, without question, the best bottom-five club the league has ever seen.

Neal Maupay continues to lead the line with seven goals, which is more than 25 percent of the team’s 26 goals through 25 games.

When comparing numbers with West Brom, Brighton dominates its foe in all major categories. The Seagulls sit on a solid 35.0 expected goals and decent 25.7 expected goals against, resulting in a stellar +9.3 xGDiff and +0.37 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Brighton has been so good on figures that it’s fifth overall in xGDiff on the season. The sides ahead of the Seagulls are inside the top six in the standings.

Bottom line, some of the prettiest statistics in the world won’t save you from trouble if you don’t back them up with proper results. That, my friends, sums up Brighton’s season in a nutshell.

Betting Analysis & Picks

You have two teams that have simply done little to nothing to secure a spot in next season’s top flight.

Brighton has had ample opportunities to steer clear for the drop zone, but continues to find ways to keep itself barely floating above water. As for West Brom, it’s going to need nothing short of a miracle down the stretch to avoid being booted to England’s second tier.

That said, I am taking a shot at this match ending in a draw at a ripe price. I have no faith in either of these sides getting a result, even though both need three points in the worst possible way.

I will also play the total to stay under the number as well. There have been two goals or less in West Brom’s last five games against Brighton across all competitions. Add in the fact there hasn’t been more than two goals in Brighton’s last four away league fixtures, and I like my chances with this wager.

Picks: Draw +245 | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-139)

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