Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wolves Should Prevail Against West Bromwich Albion (Jan. 16)
Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Pedro Neto.
Wolves vs. West Brom Odds
|Wolves Odds||-175 [BET NOW]|
|West Brom Odds||+600 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+265 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+125 / -157) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET|
Wolves haven’t won in their last five Premier League games, while West Brom is without a win in seven.
Something’s got to give in this derby match, right?
The Black County Derby could be a launching point for either side, as Wolves looks to begin its ascent toward a European place and West Brom hopes its stay in the Premier League lasts more than one season.
Let’s find the value.
Wolves have just two points from their last five games, which include defeats against Burnley, Manchester United and Everton. In the defeat against Everton, the two goals they conceded came from a deflected shot and late Michael Keane header. It was a difficult result for manager Nuno Espírito Santo to swallow.
Obviously, Wolves are missing striker Raúl Jiménez, whose head injury on Nov. 29 against Arsenal is still keeping him out of action. But their goal-scoring issues preceded that.
Before that Arsenal win, Wolves had nine goals in their first nine league games. They have eight goals in eight games since then.
While Wolves have quick, attacking players throughout the squad like Pedro Neto, Daniel Podence and Adama Traoré, this is not due to poor finishing. They have scored 19 goals in 18 games this season, and their 16.44 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) indicate it’s about what they deserve.
You know what Wolves might need? A matchup with the Premier League’s worst defense.
That’s exactly what they have on Saturday. West Brom have allowed 39 goals in 17 games, and their 33.13 non-penalty goals against lead the league by more than four over second-to-last Leeds United.
Bad news for Baggies supporters: West Brom’s attack is also terrible. Sheffield United and Burnley are at the bottom of the goal-scoring charts in the English top flight this season with just nine, but West Brom’s 11 isn’t too far ahead. The Baggies’ 9.64 NPxG is bottom of the charts.
Striker Karlan Grant was signed at the deadline in October from Huddersfield Town and scored in his debut, but he’s currently out injured. Callum Robinson and Conor Gallagher each have scored twice for the Baggies, while Matheus Pereira has three assists.
Betting Analysis & Picks
The Baggies’ only win of the season was against Sheffield United on Nov. 28. It’s safe to say that will remain the case after this fixture between West Midlands clubs.
For their lack of goal scoring, Wolves are very organized defensively and not easily broken down. I suspect a clean sheet will be in order for them against West Brom and that their pace going forward will be enough to break through the Baggies’ defense.
Both sides are in the midst of three games in 11 days, so squads may be rotated and legs may not necessarily be at their freshest. I suspect Wolves get a goal or two and are happy to see the game out.
Wolves to win 1-0 is +450 and a 2-0 victory is +550. Putting a wager on both of those is very reasonable and presents great value for bettors.
Pick: Wolves to win 1-0 (+450) | Wolves to win 2-0 (+550)