Serie A Betting Odds & Pick: Back AC Milan Over Torino (Saturday, Jan. 9)

AC Milan vs. Torino Odds

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AC Milan looks to bounce back after its first loss in 27 games on Saturday when it hosts Torino at San Siro Stadium.

The visiting side is hoping to continue its trend of moving up the table, having gone surprisingly unbeaten in its last four matches.

Historically, AC Milan has dominated this series, so Torino might have its hands full with this road contest.

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AC Milan

Going into the clash with Juventus, the Rossoneri were unbeaten in a mind-boggling  27 consecutive games. Prior to the outing, I mentioned they were skating by a bit since an injury spell, which came back to bite the club in the Juventus fixture.

I will say Juventus is just rolling right now, creating 2.5-plus expected goals in basically each of its last six matches other than against Fiorentina. That continued, with AC Milan allowing 2.36 xGA in the contest.

Getting Sandro Tonali back from suspension will help the midfield, which suffered against Juventus. I still trust AC Milan at home against a bottom-dwelling side. The Rossoneri have handled these kind of clubswith ease, and I would expect manager Stefano Pioli to do whatever it takes to get the full three points in this spot.

Even after the defeat, AC Milan remains first in the standings due to Inter Milan's stunning loss to Sampdoria earlier in the week. Juventus is still seven points back, but will be charging down the stretch.

So by no means can AC Milan take a breather here. We will see what character this team possesses after that poor result.

AC Milan is eighth in NPxGD at +8.68, which might surprise some people. The Rossoneri possess a normal xGD is +13.03, so clearly they've had some penalty fortune go their way.

Getting Zlatan Ibrahimovic and some of their key pieces will be key for AC Milan's stretch run.

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Torino

Il Toro has reeled off four strong performances in a row, compiling one victory and three draws. Those efforts helped the club barely get clear of the league's relegation zone via a goal-differential tiebreaker.

During its recent stretch of games, it appears Torino's defending has improved. In three of four, Il Toro has conceded less than one expected goals per game. Personally, I'm a bit of a skeptic. If this game is even in the 70th minute, I would be surprised if AC Milan didn't pull ahead.

Torino's NPxGD ranks 14th at -8.53, which is better than its current position of 17th place. Il Toro can score in most matches, thanks to striker Andrea Belotti. Its issues have come defensively, where it has conceded the second-most goals in league at 2.1 per game.

While Torino has had good defensive performances of late, I'm going to need to see more before I completely buy in. Also, this AC Milan team is ruthless, and prior to the Juventus loss, had scored 2-plus goals in all other games. Torino will need to score at least twice to get a point, and I don't make any Torino under wagers.

Betting Analysis & Picks

This feels like an AC Milan win by a 3-1 margin in my opinion. The Rossoneri usually take advantage of opponents with weaker defenses. Torino also rarely gets shutout, with that happening just twice in 16 games this season.

This match could end with a 2-1 scoreline and I push my plays, but I'm going to take the host at minus-1 (+112) and  play the total over 3 goals at +116 as well.

Picks: AC Milan -1 (+112) | Total Over 3 Goals (+116)