Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Torino Is Overvalued at Home vs. Genoa

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Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Mattia Perin

  • Both Torino and Genoa have underperformed this year and could use some points today to get safely above the relegation line in Serie A.
  • Torino has been solid since the restart, at least in terms of expected goals, but it has really struggled at home this season, ranking in the bottom-five of Serie A in expected goals for and against when playing at home.
  • As a result, Genoa seems to be undervalued on the road. See my favorite bet for this match below.

Torino vs. Genoa

Torino odds +133 [BET NOW]
Genoa odds +225 [BET NOW]
Draw +215 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-112/-112) [BET NOW]
Time Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Serie A’s featured match on ESPN on Thursday features a relegation battle between Torino and Genoa. Both clubs are safely above the relegation zone, for the time being, and a win for either club will give them some breathing room for now.

Torino

II Toro has been in interesting form since the restart, earning seven of a possible 21 points in their last seven matches. However, those results are a little deceiving as Torino has won the expected goal battle 11.99 to 9.24 in those matches.

II Toro has struggled at the Stadio Olimpico this season, averaging only 1.10 expected points per match. In fact, Torino ranks in the bottom five of Serie A in expected goal for and against when playing at home.

II Toro has struggled defensively at home as of late, conceding 1.95 xG per match, which is a tick higher than their 1.73 xG per match average for the season.

And I think their bad run of form may continue Thursday.

Genoa

It’s been an awful season for Genoa, who typically finish in the middle of Serie A. The Old Fool are unlucky to be in the relegation battle as they have tallied 41.49 expected points compared to their actual total of 30 points.

Most of Genoa’s misfortune has come on defense, where they’ve let in 60 goals season despite conceding just 49.30 xG.

Genoa has actually been in a good run of form on the road as of late going unbeaten in their last six matches. In those six matches, they’ve been in solid form winning on average by 0.21 xG per match (1.66 xGF, 1.45 xGA). I expect their solid road form to continue on Thursday at the Stadio Olympico.

Analysis

Torino’s performances at home leave little to be desired. Based on my model, I think they are overvalued at home:

  • Torino projected odds: +178 (35.91% win probability)
  • Genoa projected odds: +159 (38.62%)
  • Draw projected odds: +293 (25.47%)
  • Torino projected xG: 1.35
  • Genoa projected xG: 1.41

Based on those numbers, I am going to back Genoa on the road to get at least a draw from this match.

Pick: Genoa +135 (draw no bet)

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