European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals For This Week’s Champions League Matches (Dec. 1-2)

European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals For This Week’s Champions League Matches (Dec. 1-2) article feature image
Credit:

Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes of Man Utd.

The Champions League returns again this week for the second-to-last matches of the group stage. Here is what we saw the last time the Champions League was in play:

  • Real Madrid beat Inter 2-0 on the road to take over second place in the Group B.
  • Manchester City and Porto both have qualified for the Round of 16 with their wins over Olympiacos and Marseille.
  • Atalanta upset an injury-riddled Liverpool squad on the road and are not tied on points with Ajax for second place in Group D.
  • Chelsea and Sevilla both qualified for the Round of 16 with their wins over Krasnodar and Rennes.
  • Barcelona and Juventus both qualified for the Round of 16 with their wins over Dynamo Kiev and Ferencvaros.
  • PSG took over second place in Group H with their 1-0 win over RB Leipzig.

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If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.

For the Champions League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on Transfer Market. That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.

You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week. 

Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI.

Tuesday’s Matches

Notes for Tuesday’s matches:

  • Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich: Atletico will look to get revenge on Bayern Munich, as the German Champions routed them in Munich 4-0 when these teams met in October. That has turned out to be Atletico’s only loss on the 2020-21 campaign so far. Bayern has already clinched Group A and has nothing to play for other than pride in this match.
  • Liverpool vs. Ajax: The English Champions can clinch a spot in the Round of 16 with a win on Tuesday. They beat Ajax 1-0 the last time these two teams met, despite Ajax dominating the match. The Dutch Champions are tied with Atalanta on points for second place in Group D. They need to get a result in this match, with Atalanta having an easy matchup with Midtjylland.
  • Gladbach vs. Inter: Gladbach is surprisingly sitting a top Group B and can clinch a spot in the Round of 16 with a win. The Italians are in desperation mode to even qualify for the Europa League, as they only have two points so far in group play. Inter needed a Romelu Lukaku goal in stoppage time to secure a 2-2 draw the last time these two teams met.

Tuesday’s Injury News:

  • Atletico Madrid: Diego Costa (ST), Luis Suarez (ST), Hector Herrera (CM) and Sime Vrsaljko (RB) are all questionable to play against Bayern Munich.
  • Bayern Munich: Alponso Davies (LB) and Joshua Kimmich (CM), Robert Lewandowski (ST), Leon Goretzka (CM), Maneul Neuer (GK), and Corentin Tolisso (CM) are out against Atletico Madrid.
  • Borussia Monchengladbach: Jonas Hofman (RM) is questionable to play against Inter.
  • Inter: Arturo Vidal (CM) is out against Gladbach.
  • Liverpool: Virgil van Dijk (CB) and Joe Gomez (CB) are out against Ajax. Thiago (CM), Naby Keita (CM), and Trent Alexander-Arnold (LB) are questionable.
  • Lokomotiv Moscow: Dmitri Barinov (CM) is out against Salzburg. Fedor Smolov (ST) and Mikhail Lysov (CB) are questionable.
  • Manchester City: Sergio Aguero is questionable to play against Olympiacos.
  • Mitdjylland: Erik Sviatchenko (CB) is out and Evander (CAM) is questionable to face Atalanta.
  • Olympiacos: Youssef El Arabi (ST), Bruma (LM), and Mattieu Valbuena (LM) are all questionable to face Marseille.
  • Porto: Pepe (CB) is out against Manchester City.
  • Real Madrid: Eden Hazard (LW) and Sergio Ramos (CB) is out against Shakhtar. Karim Benzema (ST) is questionable.
  • Salzburg: Patson Daka (ST) is questionable to play against Lokomotiv.
  • Shakhtar: David Khocholava (CB), Viktor Komiienko (LB), and Taison (LM) are all questionable to face Real Madrid.

Wednesday’s Matches

Notes for Wednesday’s Matches: 

  • Dortmund vs. Lazio: Both of these teams were upset in their respective domestic leagues over the weekend. Dortmund lost at home to Koln, while Lazio lost at home to Udinese. Lazio won this matchup 3-1 the first time around, so Dortmund will be looking for some revenge.
  • Manchester United vs. PSG: This match has the most implications of any match on Wednesday. Manchester United can clinch a spot in the Round of 16 with a win. If PSG wins and RB Leipzig takes care of business against Istanbul, there will be a three way tie in Group H. Manchester United won the first matchup in Paris 2-1 on a late Marcus Rashford goal.

Wednesday’s Injury News:

  • Barcelona: Lionel Messi (CF), Samuel Umtiti (CB), Gerard Pique (CB) are questionable to face Ferencvaros. Ansu Fati (LW) and Sergi Roberto (RB) are out.
  • Dynamo Kiev: The club is currently dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak and could be without nine first-team players against Juventus.
  • Krasnodar: Sergey Petrov (RB), Tony Vilhena (CM), and Matvey Safonov (GK) are all questionable to play against Rennes.
  • Juventus: Giorgio Chiellini (CB) and Gianluigi Buffon (GK) are questionable to face Dynamo Kiev.
  • Manchester United: Luke Shaw (LB) is out against PSG, and Paul Pogba (CM) is questionable to face PSG.
  • PSG: Marquinhos (CB) is questionable to face Manchester United.
  • Rennes: Daniele Rugani (CB) is questionable to face Krasnodar.
  • Zenit: Artem Dzyuba (ST), Dejan Lovren (CB), Wendel (CM), Vyacheslav Kaeavaev (RB), and Magomed Ozdoev (CM) are questionable to face Club Brugge.
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