Sunday Ligue 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet PSG vs. Monaco (Feb. 21)

Sunday Ligue 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet PSG vs. Monaco (Feb. 21) article feature image
Credit:

Aurelien Meunier – PSG/PSG via Getty Images. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.

  • Coming off a statement-making win in the Champions League, PSG hosts Monaco in Ligue 1.
  • The reigning French champions are hoping to keep pace with Lyon and Lille atop the league, while Monaco is the hottest team in France.
  • BJ Cunningham lays out how he's betting this important Ligue 1 matchup.

PSG vs. Monaco Odds

PSG Odds -162
Monaco Odds +375
Draw +325
Over/Under 3.5 (+105 / -130) 
Day | Time Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
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PSG hope to move atop Ligue 1 on Sunday when they host red-hot Monaco at the Parc de Princes.

PSG earned a dream first-leg result in the Champions League on Tuesday, beating Barcelona 4-1 at Camp Nou, highlighted by a hat trick from superstar Kylian Mbappe. The Parisians even did it without the services of two of their main playmakers in Angel Di Maria and Neymar.

The defending French champions now need to focus on Ligue 1, because if they’re not careful they could end the weekend four points behind Lille and Lyon in the title race.

Monaco have been on a fantastic run over the past two months, winning eight of their last 10 league matches. The run has now vaulted them to fourth place in the table, only five points behind PSG.

Monaco defeated PSG, 3-2, on the south coast of France back in November. Can they pull off the double on the French giants?

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PSG

Trying to win at Parc de Princes is a tall task for any team. The defending champions average 2.57 expected goals (xG) per match at home, while only allowing 0.85 xG per match. However, not having Neymar and Di Maria in the lineup is a big blow for Parisians. They average a combined 1.19 xG per 90 minutes and have accounted for 10 goals and 11 assists in Ligue 1 this season.

PSG hasn’t been their dominant selves against some of the top teams in France. They’re 1-3-1 against the top six teams in Ligue 1 and have a -2.73 xGD. They were outplayed by Monaco in the November meeting, losing the xG battle, 2.97-1.77, so they better be ready to play on Sunday.

Additionally, this will be PSG’s fourth match in 11 days, so we could see manager Mauricio Pochettino rotate his squad to attempt to get some rest for a few important players.

Monaco

Monaco has actually been better than their results have shown this season. The main reason for that is their defense is due for some positive regression. Currently, Les Monégasques have allowed 37 goals on the season, but only 27.31 xG.

In fact, over their 10-match unbeaten streak, Monaco is completely dominating their opponents averaging 1.92 xG per match, while only allowing 1.01 xG per match. Matches involving Monaco typically are free-flowing with a ton of chances at either end, which has led to 84% of Monaco’s matches going over 2.5 goals. So an in-form Monaco squad should be able to hang with the French giants on the road.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

PSG is in a precarious spot during such a busy run of games, without two of their star players and against the hottest team in Ligue 1. Monaco showed they’re capable of hanging with PSG in the first meeting, and I think they will be able to do the same on Sunday.

Since I only have PSG projected at -115, I am going to back Monaco’s spread of +0.5 at +133.

Picks: Monaco +0.5 (+133)

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