Atalanta vs. Fiorentina Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 13)

Atalanta vs. Fiorentina Odds

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My favorite Serie A match of the weekend takes place Sunday when Atalanta hosts Fiorentina at Stadio di Bergamo.

Coming off a huge victory against Ajax in midweek Champions League action in Amsterdam, this feels like a get-right spot for Gasperini and the boys in league play.

Let's take a look at what's in store for this contest on Italian soil.

Atalanta

It's been a very slow start for the Nerazzurri in league play this season.

Atalanta has advanced to the Champions League Round of 16, but getting to that stage of the competition was far from easy. The club needed a minimum of a draw against its Dutch foe in a tough, road spot, However, Atalanta secured a 1-0 win, highlighted by an expected-goals win via a  1.73-1.41 margin.

I do think we will see some regression to the mean for the Nerazzurri, who aren't finishing as well as they did last season. Yet, despite that, I was really impressed with the UCL performance.

In the past, Atalanta could only win in a high-scoring game, but it basically took the sting out of that game, played pretty defensively and got the late goal to secure a spot in the knockout round.  I think a weight could have been lifted off the Nerazzurri, with the result potentially building some confidence.

Atalanta sits ninth on the Serie A table, but is winless in its last three matches. A draw with Inter was fair, but the tie with Spezia should have been an easy win in my opinion after the Nerazzurri finished with a 2.20-0.60 xG edge.

The 2-0 loss to Verona was unacceptable, but xG (1.20-1.79) stat line make it look closer than the score. Verona is outperforming its advanced stats significantly, and I view them as an average Italian side. It was simply a poor performance from Atalanta.

Again though, the Nerazzurri's goals have dried up as of late, but they're still generating good xG numbers. Atalanta is fifth in xG this season in the league, with a game in hand on those above them.

I expect to see some mean reversion for Atalanta, and its form should improve. Bottom line, Fiorentina needs to be a win at home.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Fiorentina

La Voila are in a bad place right now. Already having fired their manager this season, they're currently sitting one spot above the league's relegation zone.

I am going to go out on a limb and say I think Fiorentina moves up the table over remainder of the season.

Get ready for this stat, though, and I promise no one else is giving you Serie A information like this factual tidbits. Fiorentina is eighth in the league in NPxGD (expected goal differential after backing out penalty kicks) at +0.34. Its xPTS of 14.08 would put them 10th in the table (nine points currently).

La Voila are currently in 17th place, leading me to believe we might have some buy-on spots with Fiorentina against lower and mid-table clubs.

Fiorentina obviously comes into this one on very poor form. It hasn't won a league fixture since late October. Over those five games, the club has generated 1.16 xG/game and conceded 1.71 xGA/game.

I will say two of those games were against Roma and AC Milan, who are top-six sides. Against the others (Parma, Benevento and Genoa), Fiorentina held the edge against all three by greater than 0.6 xGD.

In its most recent match, Fiorentina was particularly impressive against Genoa without getting a result. The Nerazzurri might need to polish things up, but they're underperforming their advanced metrics.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Needless to say, I absolutely love Atalanta in this spot.

I do think Fiorentina provides good value against clubs outside the top eight in the standings, but I believe Atalanta might get rolling starting with this game.

The break in Europe will do the Nerzzurri some good,  with some pressure has been lifted. With Gian Piero Gasperini at the helm, I still have faith in the side with its impressive xG numbers.. They just have to start finishing more of their chances, which they will eventually happen.

Atalanta should be confident after the Ajax win, with this home match against Fiorentina right now is a must win. I think I would bet this up to -180, and it is less than -150.

Pick: Atalanta ML (-148)