Tottenham vs. Manchester City Betting Preview: Can Spurs Take First Leg of Champions League Quarterfinal?
Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero
- Manchester City travel to London on Tuesday to face Tottenham in the first leg of the Champions League Quarterfinal (3 p.m. ET on TNT and Galavision).
- Odds have shifted toward Spurs for their second ever match at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but Manchester City remain a slight favorite.
Manchester City and Tottenham will meet for the 157th time in all competitions, though it’s the very first in a European tournament. City has won three straight against Spurs, all coming in the Premier League, and the clubs have drawn just one time this decade.
Tottenham have reached the Champions League quarterfinal once in its history, a 5-0 aggregate loss to Real Madrid in 2010-11. Manchester City were in the quarterfinal just last season but lost both legs to eventual runner-up Liverpool.
Oddly enough, both teams lost their first match of this season’s Champions League campaign — Tottenham to Inter Milan and Man City to Lyon — but still managed to advance to the Round of 16 where they each swept German opponents.
Tuesday’s quarterfinal matchup will be just the second game played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Tottenham dominated Crystal Palace, 2-0, this past Wednesday night in the first ever match at the brand new stadium.
Tottenham-Manchester City Betting Odds
Odds have been on the move for the first leg with Manchester City crashing down from -140 to -113 since opening a few weeks ago. There’s also been considerable action toward the under (3) with the juice shifting from -117 to -140.
Manchester City are lofty -440 favorites to advance to the semifinal while Tottenham are listed at +350.
The second leg of the quarterfinal will be played on Wednesday, April 17 in Manchester, three days before their Premier League encounter at the very same venue. Manchester City will likely be listed in the -250 range for that one.
Tottenham: F Fernando Llorente (doubtful), M Eric Dier (out), D Serge Aurier (out), M/F Erik Lamela (out)
Manchester City: F Sergio Aguero (questionable), D Kyle Walker (questionable), D Benjamin Mendy (questionable), M/D Oleksandr Zinchenko (out), M/D Fabian Delph (out), GK Claudio Bravo (out)
Tottenham had the weekend off while Manchester City beat Brighton on Saturday night, 1-0, to reach the FA Cup Final.
Over the past month, Tottenham have played just two matches in all competitions compared to Manchester City’s five. Spurs should be the better rested side, but both clubs are dealing with a handful of injuries.
Betting Market Breakdown
We’ve been monitoring the betting market since odds opened on March 15, and every line adjustment has surprisingly been in favor of Tottenham.
After quickly dropping from +360 to +345 within the initial 24 hours, odds have continued to trickle down to +325 on Spurs to win.
Sportsbooks have clearly been able to attract bets on Tottenham, which has received 53% of the moneyline action according to our Sports Insights’ live market data.
While I don’t particularly agree with the movement so far, I’ve been happy to see it to get a better price on Manchester City.
Spurs played well in their first game in their new stadium, but it’s still a newer experience. Meanwhile, City have won 13-of-14 games across all comps and there’s been no real evidence of slipping up the last few months.
If you shop around the betting market you can find books listing Man City at just -110 odds, but the general consensus is currently at -115/-120 and -130 on the high end.
As for the over/under of 3 goals, public bettors have actually been fairly split in their decision — 57% over vs. 43% under. Usually the market is flooded with casual bets on the over, especially involving teams like Man City and Tottenham, but that’s not the case for Tuesday.
Sharp money has driven the juice on the under (3) from -117 to -140, and some books have even dropped the total altogether down to 2.75 or 2.5. At 3 goals I don’t think there’s any value either way, but at 2.5, the over should be considered.
Based on the exact score odds, a 1-1 draw has the best chance of happening at +600, but Manchester City to win 2-1 at +700 is where I’d lean.
- Manchester City (-115) at Tottenham