RB Leipzig vs. Manchester United Tuesday Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 8)
Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United stars Bruno Fernandes, left, and Marcus Rashford.
- Everything is at stake on Tuesday when Manchester United visits RB Leipzig for a Champions League showdown.
- RB Leipzig's only chance to advance is with a win, while Manchester United will advance with a win or draw.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down which side he thinks will advance and how he's betting this match.
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester United Odds
|RB Leipzig Odds||+120 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester United Odds||+200 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+285 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
Everything and then some will be on the line Tuesday when RB Leipzig hosts Manchester United in a crucial Champions League match at Red Bull Arena.
So much hangs in the balance in the biggest showdown in this ultra-difficult, loaded group in the European tournament. These powerhouses are level with French juggernaut Paris Saint-Germain with nine points atop the Group H table.
It goes without saying that PSG has the easiest path of all, almost certainly guaranteed advancement due to the fact it faces İstanbul Başakşehir in the other fixture. The Parisians have been installed as heavy -1000 moneyline favorites against the Turkish side at Parc des Princes.
RB Leipzig, the Bundesliga stalwart that reached the semifinal of the competition last season, can only advance to the knockout phase with a victory. On the other side, things are slightly easier for the Premier League outfit. The Red Devils will advance with anything but a defeat.
That said, let’s take a look at these clubs and what see could be on deck.
The host side is unbeaten in its last three matches, highlighted by its 3-3 draw against Bayern Munich this past weekend.
Manager Julian Nagelsmann had to be pleased with RB Leipzig’s fight in that contest, as the team received goals from three different players and held a 1.5-1.2 xG advantage against the reigning UCL champion.
Things got a little dicey in its most recent group match, which resulted in a wild 4-3 triumph over İstanbul Başakşehir. The victors, whose defense got torched for a hat trick by İrfan Kahveci, needed a stoppage-time goal from Alexander Sørloth to bag all three points.
Looking at the statistical data, RB Leipzig has amassed respectable numbers in the quartet. The club currently sits on 6.5 expected goals and 5.9 expected goals against, resulting in a +0.6 xGDiff and +0.61 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær could not have been happier with his team’s solid 3-1 win over West Ham this past weekend in England’s top flight. Paul Pogba, Mason Greenwood and Marcus Rashford scored for the Red Devils, who have won four of their last five tilts across all competitions.
That lone blemish came in last week’s 3-1 loss to PSG at Old Trafford. Manchester United seemed to be heading to a draw in that match, but two second-half goals from the Parisians led to the disappointing outcome.
When comparing Manchester United’s data against RB Leipzig, the visiting side’s advanced metrics are better overall than its host. The Red Devils hold a stellar 9.6 xG and 6.1 xGA, yielding a +3.5 xGDiff and +0.71 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Outside of the xGA statistic, Manchester United leads the entire group in all four categories.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Bottom line, this is about as even of a match as you’re going to find at this stage of the competition.
That said, I am going to back Manchester United to get the job done in this exciting affair. The Red Devils have less to do when it comes to reaching the knockout round, which has to have them feeling much better than their foe.
The Bundesliga side is going to have to come out on the front foot, pressing the situation throughout in search of all three points. That’s going to open up the game, resulting in Manchester United finding opportunities on the counter.
Expect Rashford and Bruno Fernandes to do some damage when chances are presented.
I will also back the total to go over the number for all the aforementioned reasons stated above. Both offenses are in form, having hung three goals on their opponents over the weekend, so you have to be confident in this wager.
Picks: Manchester United — Draw No Bet (+125) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-167)