Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk Wednesday Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 9)

Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk Odds

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The scenario is simple for Inter Milan if it wants to advance to the Champions League knockout stage.

The Serie A power has to beat Shakhtar Donetsk and hope the other Group B match between Real Madrid and Borussia Mönchengladbach doesn't end in a draw. If it does finish level and the Italians win, they would be even with Real Madrid on eight points.

That would be unfortunate for Inter, due to the fact Real Madrid owns the tiebreaker, courtesy of winning both head-to-head matchups.

For the Ukrainian champion, it’s also simple: Match or beat Real Madrid’s result against Gladbach, and it's in. Shakhtar provided the shock of the group stages, beating Los Blancos twice and enter this fixture even on points with Zinedine Zidane’s team.

If Antonio Conte’s side fails to beat Shakhtar, it wouldn’t even qualify for a consolation trip to the Europa League knockout rounds. The Nerazzurri would finish bottom of the group.

Let’s try to find value in this match that could potentially see neither side advance.

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Inter Milan

Inter finds itself in this position because it went winless in the first four matches of the group stages, drawing with Gladbach at home and Shakhtar away before a pair of defeats against Real Madrid.

Conte’s team has a chance, though, thanks to a five-goal thriller where it secured all three points on the road against Gladbach.

As evidence of that game, Inter has been in great form in front of goal. The Nerazzurri has scored three or more goals in four of their last five games, with the latest loss to Real Madrid the exception. In that game, Inter was down to 10 men in the 33rd minute, thanks to back-to-back cautions given to Arturo Vidal.

Inter was boosted last week against Gladbach by the return of midfielder Marcelo Brozovic after a positive COVID-19 test. Conte should have a full squad at his disposal for this game.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Oddly enough, all seven of Shakhtar’s UCL points thus far have come against Inter and Real Madrid. The Miners fell twice to Gladbach by a combined scoreline of 10-0, a set of fixtures that put the Germans in control of Group B.

Domestically, Shakhtar will have been frustrated by drawing four of its first seven matches in the Ukrainian Premier League. However, the club is just three points behind leader Dynamo Kiev through 12 games.

Shakhtar’s best feature is its attack, which has generated 30 goals in domestic play thus far. The Miners are likely to be without striker Junior Moraes, who exited the last week's win over Real Madrid after just 25 minutes, but their typically Brazilian frontline is still strong. Fernando will likely fill in up top, with wingers Taison and Tete lining up on either side of playmaker Marlos.

Betting Analysis

In these two sides’ first matchup, Inter dominated the game, but couldn’t find a breakthrough en route to a scoreless draw. According to FBRef.com, the Italians had an expected goals advantage of 1.7-0.1 in the matchup.

Given Inter’s strong attack of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez, with Alexis Sanchez likely coming off the bench, and Shakhtar’s proclivity to score goals, I think the total over 3.5 goals at +102 provides the best value.

Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+102)