Four Teams To Fade at the World Cup

If you're planning on betting a tournament such as the World Cup, it's paramount to have a strategy going into it. That doesn't mean you shouldn't adapt as the contest goes on, but by this time you should have teams you're buying and selling before this puppy kicks off.

Below are four teams that are set up to disappoint in Russia.

Argentina

According to the odds, Argentina has about a 61.3% (-162) chance of winning Group D and an 87.5% (-700) chance of advancing to the knockout rounds. La Albiceleste are the clear favorite  in the set, but this group is a lot tighter than the odds suggest, not only because Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland are solid teams, but also because Argentina aren't all they're cracked up to be.

Let's get it out of the way. Argentina have Lionel Messi on their team and he's so damn good he could carry this squad to the promised land on his own. His supporting cast up top is fantastic as Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero and Paulo Dybala would all be top attacking options on just about any team in the world. In fact, Argentina may have too many strikers.

With Messi and Co., Argentina should have a potent attack, but the problem is that the players behind them are not world-beaters. This is especially worrisome considering Argentina's style of play. They rely heavily on an aggressive press, which can leave them exposed against savvy counter-attacking teams such as Iceland and Nigeria. Croatia will also present problems for Argentina as their midfield dynamos have the ability to pass through the South American side when they put pressure on the ball. This will not be an easy time for Messi and his pals.

Portugal

Much like Argentina, Portugal will go as far as their virtuoso takes them. Even at 33, Cristiano Ronaldo can take over a game. He's more of a pure striker now than the jack-of-all-trades winger he was in his salad days.

Outside of Ronaldo, Portugal seems quite ordinary. William Carvalho and Joao Moutinho are adequate central midfielders. The real problem will be at the back. Portugal will need to rely on 35-year-old Pepe to boss the back as his possible centerback partners Jose Fonte and Bruno Alves have struggled mightily this season. Portugal's woes in the back will eventually sink them, and their draw is far from easy.

Ronaldo and Portugal are decided underdogs in their first match of the tournament against Spain. The Navigators are +372 (5Dimes) to beat their Iberian rivals on Friday. A loss to Spain could put Portugal in a tight spot as they take on Morocco and Iran — both of whom will be tough to beat. Even with their deficiencies, the 2016 European champions are -355 (78% implied probability) to make it out of Group B. That is high and could open up good opportunities to fade Portugal both in the futures market and on a game-by-game basis.

Switzerland

One thing that's ill-advised is to pay much mind to the FIFA rankings. Why? Well, for starters, Switzerland is ranked No. 6 in the world ahead of teams such as France (7), Spain (10) and England (12). That is absurd. Even with their lofty ranking, the Swiss are as long as 150-1 to win the World Cup.

There are a few things to like about Die Nati, including 22-year-old centerback Manuel Akanji and the engimatic-yet-talented winger Xherdan Shaqiri. Outside of Shaqiri's ability to pull off stunning moments, Switzerland won't strike fear into opposing defenses. Haris Seferovic will need to shoulder a good brunt of the scoring load and he didn't play much for Benfica this season.

Playing in a group with Brazil likely condemns Switzerland to battling for second with Serbia and Costa Rica. Oddsmakers believe the Swiss are the most likely to advance at -102, but Serbia (+118) are not far behind and in my mind should have shorter odds than the Swiss.

Russia

I really have struggled with evaluating Russia's chances for this tournament. But there are two truths to weigh. The first is that Russia is a bad team. The second is that this tournament is run by FIFA and is being played in Russia.

Savvy bettors know to avoid the conspiracy theory narratives, but this situation is so incredible that it's hard not to get carried away with the possibilities here. In 2002, FIFA basically rigged a Round of 16 match between hosts South Korea and Italy to ensure that the underdogs continued their magical run and, more importantly, fans kept showing up to the games.

Neither FIFA nor Russia live above board, so tread carefully here. But if you are someone who pays no mind to that kind of stuff then you should fade Sbornaya and fade them hard. Russia has looked terrible for much of the last decade and are one of the worst teams in the field. That field just happens to be in Russia, though.