Friday marks the start of the World Cup quarterfinals, and there are two can’t-miss matches on the slate. In the early game, France takes on Uruguay, followed by a blockbuster between Brazil and Belgium.
Here’s a breakdown and analysis of the market for both matches, and which sides the sharps/public are betting:
France vs. Uruguay (10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: France +105, Uruguay +370, Draw +210
Odds to Advance: France -215, Uruguay +185
The moneyline on France to win in regulation has consistently hovered above the opener of +100 at Pinnacle and the offshore market, but that’s not the case at Nevada’s sportsbooks. Most are listing France as the odds-on favorites, even as high as -125 (like Wynn), so there’s clearly a difference in liability. If you are going to bet them, shop the market and don’t settle for a line that’s nearly 30 cents off.
More than half of offshore wagers have been placed on Les Bleus, but oddsmakers have shifted the line toward the draw (+220 to +210). There’s clearly some early, sharper money betting on extra time, as it accounts for just 15% of the tickets.
The total has been set at just two goals, and public bettors have been quick to jump on the over with more than 80% of bets. The market has noticed but isn’t fazed, and the juice is now shaded toward the under (-122).
Brazil vs. Belgium (2 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Brazil +115, Belgium +268, Draw +240
Odds to Advance: Brazil -165, Belgium +150
Brazil are the +117 favorites and are getting the majority of public action of moneyline bets, but the line is moving in the direction of Belgium and the draw.
Some of that has been caused by bettors choosing to take Belgium +0.5 goals (-130) and sportsbooks needing to move all the odds. It’s easy to understand why bettors feel Belgium are a live underdog, even after narrowly escaping Japan to get here, but Brazil will pose a much different challenge.
The total opened at 2.5, and after initial movement on the over, the juice has settled back down to the opener of -118. Just like the early match, public bettors have flocked to take the over, accounting for 78% of O/U tickets.