2019 US Open Final Betting Preview: Will Medvedev Pull the Upset vs. Nadal?

2019 US Open Final Betting Preview: Will Medvedev Pull the Upset vs. Nadal? article feature image

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rafael Nadal

  • The 2019 US Open Final takes place on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN) with Rafael Nadal facing Daniil Medvedev.
  • Sean Zerillo previews the match and provides his favorite bet for Sunday afternoon.

Sunday marks the fourth straight finals appearance since Wimbledon for Daniil Medvedev, who lost to Nick Kyrgios in two tiebreaks in Washington and Rafael Nadal (at their only previous meeting) in the Rogers Cup, before avenging his Wimbledon loss against David Goffin to capture the Cincinnati Masters.

Nadal is seeking his fourth career U.S. Open title today, and 19th slam title overall, and will be looking to avoid becoming the next stop on the Medvedev revenge tour.

Save for that final in Montreal against Nadal, where he won just three games,the Russian has looked virtually unbeatable on the recent hard court swing.

But after spending so much time on the court over the past month, his fitness will be a significant question in a five-set format against the hardest working player on tour.

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All odds via PointsBet and current as of 11 a.m. ET.

Rafael Nadal (-527) vs. Daniil Medvedev | O/U: 34.5

  • Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium
  • H2H: Nadal leads 1-0

The Tennis Abstract US Open Forecast projects Nadal as a 60.3% favorite, equivalent to fair odds of -154; suggesting considerable value on the underdog.

However, you might notice the tape all over Medvedev’s legs, and might have heard that he was set to retire against Stan Wawrinka had he dropped the first set of their quarterfinal matchup.

He’s dealing with a quad injury, where he apparently has a muscle tear, and he’s also struggled to land his first serve in his past two matches either due to injury or cramping.

The Russian has played 52 sets and 22 matches since Wimbledon while Nadal has only played nine matches over that span (benefitting from two pre-match retirements), dropping just two sets (one each to Fabio Fognini and Marin Cilic).

Despite the injuries and the fact he physically looks worn down, Medevedv keeps grinding his way past opponents; with his unorthodox shot selection, and tendency to seemingly win every big point by ramping up his aggressiveness.

He was able to defeat Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati by pushing his game to the limit, maxing out on almost every second serve attempt while hitting 16 aces.

However, I doubt that he can red-line himself against Nadal for more than a set in here.

Nadal is far too sound in every face to get worn down in the way that Medvedev typically beats his opponents, especially having played 486 fewer points (and one fewer match), while running so much less than Medvedev has  during the fortnight:

The Spaniard should be taking over by the later stages of this match, and the live game spread or under might be worth a look if Nadal goes up 2-0 on sets. Holding a +400 futures ticket, I’ll certainly be rooting for Rafa.

He has faced just 16 break points in his five matches, while Medvedev has faced 53 in six matches, consistently hanging on for dear life.

Other than a level drop while cramping a bit against Diego Schwartzman, Nadal has been almost impeccable:

As for pre-match wagers, there’s one that I like quite a bit: Over 9.5 games in the first set, when Medvedev should be playing his most aggressive tennis and going completely for broke.

Bets (So Far) for September 8

Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Sunday, September 8. 

  • 1st Set, over 9.5 Games (-103)

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