ATP Wimbledon Quarterfinals Betting Preview: Can Sam Querrey Upset Rafa Nadal?

Credit:

Susan Mullane, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Sam Querrey

  • Sean Zerillo previews Wednesday's Quaterfinal action at the All England Club and suggests a few bets that have value.

Wednesday features all four men’s quarterfinals matches, but the action begins at 8:00 a.m. E.T., so you’ll need to get your Wimbledon bets in early.

The slate once again features each of the “Big Three” —  Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal — and includes a matchup between Nadal and the only remaining American in the draw — Sam Querrey.

The Big Three each rolled over their round four opponents, forcing 24 combined break points while facing just one (Federer, against Matteo Berrettini), in separate blowout victories – dropping 19 combined games.

Here’s how the Big Three, their round four opponents, and their upcoming Quarterfinal opponents performed in the fourth round:

If you’re looking for a more comprehensive statistical profile of each of the remaining Wimbledon 2019 competitors, there is additional data in my Round 4 preview. 

Let’s take a closer look at each of Wednesday’s four matches that will get underway at 8 a.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN2.


ATP Wimbledon Quarterfinal Betting Preview

Novak Djokovic (-1655) vs. David Goffin | O/U: 31

Time: 8 a.m. ET
Where: Center Court

H2H: Djokovic leads 5-1

Listed at 5-foot-11, 150 pounds, David Goffin is one of the smaller players on tour, but he’s an extremely solid all-around player with good speed, the ability to make shots from either wing and the confidence to adjust on the fly.

The Belgian will look to setup backhand winners against Djokovic, but he’ll need to be extremely accurate if he even hopes to take a set off of the Serbian.

Djokovic is one of the best defenders on tour, and Goffin’s shot quality on Wednesday will need to be better than his current mark of 143 winners against 107 unforced errors for the tournament.

Goffin has served at a high rate in his four matches (82% first-service points won), but Djokovic has the bigger serve overall, the more accurate groundstrokes and a history of beating Goffin on fast surfaces.

At the equivalent of 7.5 miles, Goffin has also run further in this tournament than all remaining competitors except for Guido Pella; about 27% further than Djokovic has run.

Roberto Bautista Agut (-475) vs. Guido Pella | O/U: 36

Time: 8 a.m. ET
Where: Court 1

H2H: Bautista Agut leads 2-0

Speaking of Pella, I’m banking on him having heavy legs after running 3,821 meters on Monday in a dramatic five-set comeback win (down two sets and a break) against 2016 finalist Milos Raonic.

That distance actually ranks third for an individual match among the remaining contenders. Pella also owns first place, having covered 4,773 meters in his second-round victory over Andreas Seppi.

For comparison’s sake, Novak Djokovic ranks second, having covered 3,395 meters in his victory over Hubert Hurkacz.

Roberto Bautista Agut (“RBA”) has run 58% as far as Pella has, winning each of his matches in straight sets while facing just 11 break points, as compared to 46 against Pella.

The Spaniard also has a 6% advantage in winning first-service points throughout the tournament, though that doesn’t account for Pella having faced two big servers and lesser defenders in Anderson and Raonic.

RBA has used his speed to track down potential winners all over these grass courts and has played as good of tennis as anyone – never getting into a difficult situation throughout the tournament.

He beat Pella earlier this year on clay in Munich and also has a straight-sets win in their only slam meeting at the 2017 Australian Open.

As I’m sitting on a +2200 quarters future for RBA (which he clinches with a win here), I won’t be personally using him in any wagers – but both his moneyline and set spread -1.5 certainly make for great parlay pieces.

Roger Federer (-875) vs. Kei Nishikori | O/U: 34.5

Time: 10 a.m. ET
Where: Center Court

H2H: Federer leads 7-3

Federer’s fourth-round clash with Matteo Berrettini was a huge letdown. The Italian looked flustered and was quite literally falling all over himself.

Amongst his more notable errors – Berrettini swung at, whiffed, slipped and fell behind a ball behind on the baseline, and missed the equivalent of a tap-in put on a volley at the net.

He finished with 14 winners against 23 unforced errors, while Federer was virtually flawless – hitting 24 winners against five unforced errors, winning 88% of his first serves and taking care of the match in 75 minutes.

Nishikori certainly has the game to beat Federer if the Swiss isn’t at his best.

The Japanese won their most recent meeting in 2018 at the ATP Finals, while Federer won two matches earlier last year, and has won in the only meetings against Nishikori both on grass (Halle, 2014), and in a major (in five sets, 2017 Australian Open.

Nishikori wasn’t even at his best against Mikhail Kukushkin, hitting 35 winners against 31 unforced errors, while serving at a 66% success rate. He’ll need to be much more dominant with his serve if he hopes to pressure Federer.

Federer has been more dominant in this tournament than people think. Berrettini fell apart, but it was Roger who dismantled him.

I would look for him to keep rolling and cover the spread of -6 games.

Rafael Nadal (-835) vs. Sam Querrey | O/U: 35

Time: 8 a.m. ET on ESPN2
Where: Court 1

H2H: Nadal leads 4-1

Querrey had nearly as many winners in his fourth-round match as each of the Big Three did combined.

He has rolled through a Wimbledon draw once again with his powerful serve and forehand, winning 85.6% of his first-service points while hammering home 100 aces.

Of the remaining competitors, only Federer and Querrey have the ability to win a service game down 0-30 by hitting four aces in a row. The American’s booming serve is as dangerous of a weapon as you could want to have on the grass.

He beat Nadal in straight sets the last time that they played, on a hard court in Mexico in 2017, while Nadal has wins in two ATP 1000 Masters events and the 2008 US Open.

In order to win this match, Querrey is going to have to hold serve and win in the tiebreaks. He can’t rely on breaking Nadal multiple times – he’s going to need to conserve his energy protecting his own serve.

Unfortunately, Querrey has won just 48% of the tiebreaks he has played in his career, while Nadal has won 61%. On grass Nadal is at 62.3%, while Querrey improves to 56.4% in tiebreaks on his best surface.

It seems destined that these two will play a tiebreak at some point – they’ve done so in four of their five meetings. And I also like Querrey to push it to a fourth set.

Nadal to win 3-1 at +255 seems enticing.

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