The Mutua Madrid Open gets fully underway Monday, with 10 matches on tap, starting at 6 a.m. ET.

After a first glance at the card, one match stuck out — the clash between Novak Djokovic (-185) and Kei Nishikori (+155). I’m somewhat surprised to see oddsmakers instilling this much confidence in Nole after his recent miseries — the latest of which was a first-round defeat in Barcelona against Marty Klizan. I think this presents another pretty decent opportunity to oppose the Serb, who continues to get line respect on name alone.

I also expected the Japanese player to get a little more love here, especially after a run to the final in Monte Carlo. All of the value lies with Nishikori at this price — if physically fit, which remains a question after his retirement last week in Barcelona. Too many question marks to qualify as a hitter, however, especially since Djokovic has won 10 straight over Nishikori.

I did single out another match worth betting today. Let’s get into Monday’s hitter.

YTD: 44-41 +11.43 units


Pablo Andujar (-120) vs. Feliciano Lopez (+100)

Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
When: Not before 2 p.m. ET

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